Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based Analysis

Aim. Assess the risk of synchronous metastasis and establish a nomogram in patients with GISTs. Methods. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database (2004-2014) was accessed. With the logistic regression model as the basis, a nomogram was constructed. Results. 7,256 target patients were cont...

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Main Authors: Yuqiang Li, Guangfeng Zhang, Xiangping Song, Lilan Zhao, Cenap Güngör, Dan Wang, Wenxue Liu, Yan Huang, Fengbo Tan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2020-01-01
Series:Gastroenterology Research and Practice
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8493707
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author Yuqiang Li
Guangfeng Zhang
Xiangping Song
Lilan Zhao
Cenap Güngör
Dan Wang
Wenxue Liu
Yan Huang
Fengbo Tan
author_facet Yuqiang Li
Guangfeng Zhang
Xiangping Song
Lilan Zhao
Cenap Güngör
Dan Wang
Wenxue Liu
Yan Huang
Fengbo Tan
author_sort Yuqiang Li
collection DOAJ
description Aim. Assess the risk of synchronous metastasis and establish a nomogram in patients with GISTs. Methods. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database (2004-2014) was accessed. With the logistic regression model as the basis, a nomogram was constructed. Results. 7,256 target patients were contained in our study. The nomogram discrimination for mGIST prediction revealed that tumor size contributed most to synchronous metastasis, followed by lymph nodes, extension, pathologic grade, tumor location, and mitotic count. C-index values of predictions were 0.821 (95% CI, 0.805-0.836) and 0.815 (95% CI, 0.800-0.831), and Brier score were 0.109 and 0.112 in training and validation group, respectively. The value of area under the ROCs were 0.813 (p<0.001) in the primary cohort and 0.819 (p<0.001) in the validation cohort. Through the calibration curves (as seen in the figures), nomogram prediction proved to have excellent agreement with actual metastatic diseases. Conclusion. A new nomogram was created that can evaluate synchronous metastatic diseases in patients with GISTs.
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spelling doaj-art-b30f2e2b758142ecbfe600404d0304eb2025-08-20T03:39:18ZengWileyGastroenterology Research and Practice1687-61211687-630X2020-01-01202010.1155/2020/84937078493707Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based AnalysisYuqiang Li0Guangfeng Zhang1Xiangping Song2Lilan Zhao3Cenap Güngör4Dan Wang5Wenxue Liu6Yan Huang7Fengbo Tan8Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Quality Research in Chinese Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, Fujian Provincial Hospital, Fuzhou, ChinaDepartment of General Visceral and Thoracic Surgery, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, GermanyDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, ChinaDepartment of Rheumatology, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, ChinaKey Laboratory of Protein Chemistry and Developmental Biology of Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, ChinaAim. Assess the risk of synchronous metastasis and establish a nomogram in patients with GISTs. Methods. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database (2004-2014) was accessed. With the logistic regression model as the basis, a nomogram was constructed. Results. 7,256 target patients were contained in our study. The nomogram discrimination for mGIST prediction revealed that tumor size contributed most to synchronous metastasis, followed by lymph nodes, extension, pathologic grade, tumor location, and mitotic count. C-index values of predictions were 0.821 (95% CI, 0.805-0.836) and 0.815 (95% CI, 0.800-0.831), and Brier score were 0.109 and 0.112 in training and validation group, respectively. The value of area under the ROCs were 0.813 (p<0.001) in the primary cohort and 0.819 (p<0.001) in the validation cohort. Through the calibration curves (as seen in the figures), nomogram prediction proved to have excellent agreement with actual metastatic diseases. Conclusion. A new nomogram was created that can evaluate synchronous metastatic diseases in patients with GISTs.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8493707
spellingShingle Yuqiang Li
Guangfeng Zhang
Xiangping Song
Lilan Zhao
Cenap Güngör
Dan Wang
Wenxue Liu
Yan Huang
Fengbo Tan
Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based Analysis
Gastroenterology Research and Practice
title Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based Analysis
title_full Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based Analysis
title_fullStr Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based Analysis
title_short Establishment and Verification of Synchronous Metastatic Nomogram for Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs): A Population-Based Analysis
title_sort establishment and verification of synchronous metastatic nomogram for gastrointestinal stromal tumors gists a population based analysis
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8493707
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