Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling Study
Climate change and related events such as temperature increase over time and more frequent extreme weather events constitute a risk to the population and wellbeing. This study contributes to the knowledge on this subject by analyzing changes in mortality in Portugal using the most recent historical...
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MDPI AG
2025-02-01
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| author | Mónica Rodrigues David Carvalho |
| author_facet | Mónica Rodrigues David Carvalho |
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| description | Climate change and related events such as temperature increase over time and more frequent extreme weather events constitute a risk to the population and wellbeing. This study contributes to the knowledge on this subject by analyzing changes in mortality in Portugal using the most recent historical and future climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). A time-series distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the temperature-related mortality burdens in Portugal in the historical period (or reference, 1995–2014), the mid-century period (2046–2065), and the end of the century period (2081–2100) under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios. The findings show that winter periods of the contemporary climate (1995–2014) showed a significantly elevated risk of deaths from cold temperatures (RR = 2.23 (95% CI: 1.07, 4.64) at a minimum value of −3 °C), while at the maximum value (35.9 °C), the RR of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.01, 2.82) in the summer period indicated a moderate increase in risk. In terms of future projections, heat-related and extreme-heat-related mortality are higher under SSP5-8.5, while cold-related and extreme-cold-related mortality are generally higher under SSP2-4.5. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the future periods of 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 showed a small net change in heat-related mortality. However, there is projected to be an increase in heat-related mortality due to increased heat, ranging from 0.13% to 0.14%. The impact of extreme heat is expected to result in a mortality increase of 0.03% to 0.04%, while extreme cold is expected to decrease mortality by −0.10%. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the net change in mortality during the future period of 2046–2065 is estimated to decrease by −0.13%, with some uncertainty in the estimate. From 2081 to 2100, there is expected to be an estimated increase of 0.06% in mortality. The specific impact of increased heat shows an increase in heat-related mortality ranging from 0.15% to 0.17%, while extreme heat has an estimated increase of 0.04% to 0.05%. The developed framework provides a comprehensive assessment of excess mortality attributed to varying non-optimum temperatures for designing public health policies in Portugal. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b2fae19a01d54e2ca1b440248eabd646 |
| institution | DOAJ |
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| spelling | doaj-art-b2fae19a01d54e2ca1b440248eabd6462025-08-20T02:44:36ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-02-0116219610.3390/atmos16020196Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling StudyMónica Rodrigues0David Carvalho1Department of Geography and Tourism, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Coimbra, 3004-530 Coimbra, PortugalDepartment of Physics, CESAM, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, PortugalClimate change and related events such as temperature increase over time and more frequent extreme weather events constitute a risk to the population and wellbeing. This study contributes to the knowledge on this subject by analyzing changes in mortality in Portugal using the most recent historical and future climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). A time-series distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the temperature-related mortality burdens in Portugal in the historical period (or reference, 1995–2014), the mid-century period (2046–2065), and the end of the century period (2081–2100) under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios. The findings show that winter periods of the contemporary climate (1995–2014) showed a significantly elevated risk of deaths from cold temperatures (RR = 2.23 (95% CI: 1.07, 4.64) at a minimum value of −3 °C), while at the maximum value (35.9 °C), the RR of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.01, 2.82) in the summer period indicated a moderate increase in risk. In terms of future projections, heat-related and extreme-heat-related mortality are higher under SSP5-8.5, while cold-related and extreme-cold-related mortality are generally higher under SSP2-4.5. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the future periods of 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 showed a small net change in heat-related mortality. However, there is projected to be an increase in heat-related mortality due to increased heat, ranging from 0.13% to 0.14%. The impact of extreme heat is expected to result in a mortality increase of 0.03% to 0.04%, while extreme cold is expected to decrease mortality by −0.10%. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the net change in mortality during the future period of 2046–2065 is estimated to decrease by −0.13%, with some uncertainty in the estimate. From 2081 to 2100, there is expected to be an estimated increase of 0.06% in mortality. The specific impact of increased heat shows an increase in heat-related mortality ranging from 0.15% to 0.17%, while extreme heat has an estimated increase of 0.04% to 0.05%. The developed framework provides a comprehensive assessment of excess mortality attributed to varying non-optimum temperatures for designing public health policies in Portugal.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/2/196mortalityclimate changeShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)projectionsdistributed lag non-linear model (DLNM)Portugal |
| spellingShingle | Mónica Rodrigues David Carvalho Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling Study Atmosphere mortality climate change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) Portugal |
| title | Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling Study |
| title_full | Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling Study |
| title_fullStr | Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling Study |
| title_short | Projections of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Under Climate Change Scenarios in Portugal: A Modelling Study |
| title_sort | projections of heat and cold related mortality under climate change scenarios in portugal a modelling study |
| topic | mortality climate change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) Portugal |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/2/196 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT monicarodrigues projectionsofheatandcoldrelatedmortalityunderclimatechangescenariosinportugalamodellingstudy AT davidcarvalho projectionsofheatandcoldrelatedmortalityunderclimatechangescenariosinportugalamodellingstudy |