Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective

<p>Three storm surge events with return periods between 10 and 100 years have occurred in the western Baltic Sea in recent years (2017, 2019 and 2023). While in most cases such surge events are associated with high wind speeds, two of the three events occurred at relatively moderate wind speed...

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Main Authors: N. Groll, L. Gaslikova, R. Weisse
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2025-07-01
Series:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Online Access:https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/2137/2025/nhess-25-2137-2025.pdf
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author N. Groll
L. Gaslikova
R. Weisse
author_facet N. Groll
L. Gaslikova
R. Weisse
author_sort N. Groll
collection DOAJ
description <p>Three storm surge events with return periods between 10 and 100 years have occurred in the western Baltic Sea in recent years (2017, 2019 and 2023). While in most cases such surge events are associated with high wind speeds, two of the three events occurred at relatively moderate wind speeds. The events are analysed and decomposed into the contributions from different factors, such as direct atmospheric effects or prefilling of the Baltic Sea, which can lead to such extreme water levels. A numerical hindcast is used to place the events and their contributing components into a climate perspective. While the absolute water levels were among the highest in recent decades, the individual contributions of the direct atmospheric effects as well as prefilling were not unusual for two of the three events and rather a combination of atmospherically induced water level changes and prefilling caused such prominent extreme events. Although the perceived increased frequency of the events may indicate a relation to climate change, the individual contributions were within the range of climate variability observed in recent decades.</p>
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1684-9981
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spelling doaj-art-b2e056a408ae412c96298bc4e33b4d802025-08-20T03:29:18ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812025-07-01252137215410.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspectiveN. Groll0L. Gaslikova1R. Weisse2Institute of Coastal Systems - Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, 21502 Geesthacht, GermanyInstitute of Coastal Systems - Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, 21502 Geesthacht, GermanyInstitute of Coastal Systems - Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany<p>Three storm surge events with return periods between 10 and 100 years have occurred in the western Baltic Sea in recent years (2017, 2019 and 2023). While in most cases such surge events are associated with high wind speeds, two of the three events occurred at relatively moderate wind speeds. The events are analysed and decomposed into the contributions from different factors, such as direct atmospheric effects or prefilling of the Baltic Sea, which can lead to such extreme water levels. A numerical hindcast is used to place the events and their contributing components into a climate perspective. While the absolute water levels were among the highest in recent decades, the individual contributions of the direct atmospheric effects as well as prefilling were not unusual for two of the three events and rather a combination of atmospherically induced water level changes and prefilling caused such prominent extreme events. Although the perceived increased frequency of the events may indicate a relation to climate change, the individual contributions were within the range of climate variability observed in recent decades.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/2137/2025/nhess-25-2137-2025.pdf
spellingShingle N. Groll
L. Gaslikova
R. Weisse
Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
title Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
title_full Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
title_fullStr Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
title_full_unstemmed Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
title_short Recent Baltic Sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
title_sort recent baltic sea storm surge events from a climate perspective
url https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/2137/2025/nhess-25-2137-2025.pdf
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