Earthquake Forecasting Based on <i>b</i> Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China
Characterized by frequent earthquakes and a dense population, Yunnan Province, China, faces significant seismic hazards and is a hot place for earthquake forecasting research. In a previous study, we evaluated the performance of the <i>b</i> value for 5-year seismic forecasting during 20...
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2025-02-01
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| author | Yuchen Zhang Rui Wang Haixia Shi Miao Miao Jiancang Zhuang Ying Chang Changsheng Jiang Lingyuan Meng Danning Li Lifang Liu Youjin Su Zhenguo Zhang Peng Han |
| author_facet | Yuchen Zhang Rui Wang Haixia Shi Miao Miao Jiancang Zhuang Ying Chang Changsheng Jiang Lingyuan Meng Danning Li Lifang Liu Youjin Su Zhenguo Zhang Peng Han |
| author_sort | Yuchen Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Characterized by frequent earthquakes and a dense population, Yunnan Province, China, faces significant seismic hazards and is a hot place for earthquake forecasting research. In a previous study, we evaluated the performance of the <i>b</i> value for 5-year seismic forecasting during 2000–2019 and made a forward prediction of M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in 2020–2024. In this study, with the forecast period having passed, we first revisit the results and assess the forward prediction performance. Then, the background seismicity rate, which may also offer valuable long-term forecasting information, is incorporated into earthquake prediction for Yunnan Province. To assess the effectiveness of the prediction, the Molchan Error Diagram (MED), Probability Gain (PG), and Probability Difference (PD) are employed. Using a 25-year catalog, the spatial <i>b</i> value and background seismicity rate across five temporal windows are calculated, and 86 M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes as prediction samples are examined. The predictive performance of the background seismicity rate and <i>b</i> value is comprehensively tested and shown to be useful for 5-year forecasting in Yunnan. The performance of the <i>b</i> value exhibits a positive correlation with the predicted earthquake magnitude. The synergistic effect of combining these two predictors is also revealed. Finally, using the threshold corresponding to the maximum <i>PD</i>, we integrate the forecast information of background seismicity rates and the <i>b</i> value. A forward prediction is derived for the period from January 2025 to December 2029. This study can be helpful for disaster preparedness and risk management in Yunnan Province, China. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b284bd56d09542eba99b9fada3ce04fe |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1099-4300 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| spelling | doaj-art-b284bd56d09542eba99b9fada3ce04fe2025-08-20T03:12:05ZengMDPI AGEntropy1099-43002025-02-0127220510.3390/e27020205Earthquake Forecasting Based on <i>b</i> Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, ChinaYuchen Zhang0Rui Wang1Haixia Shi2Miao Miao3Jiancang Zhuang4Ying Chang5Changsheng Jiang6Lingyuan Meng7Danning Li8Lifang Liu9Youjin Su10Zhenguo Zhang11Peng Han12Department of Astronautical Science and Mechanics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, ChinaDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, ChinaDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, ChinaInstitute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo 190-8562, JapanBGRIMM Technology Group, Institute of Mining Engineering, Beijing 100160, ChinaInstitute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, ChinaEarthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650224, ChinaEarthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650224, ChinaEarthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650224, ChinaDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, ChinaDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, ChinaCharacterized by frequent earthquakes and a dense population, Yunnan Province, China, faces significant seismic hazards and is a hot place for earthquake forecasting research. In a previous study, we evaluated the performance of the <i>b</i> value for 5-year seismic forecasting during 2000–2019 and made a forward prediction of M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in 2020–2024. In this study, with the forecast period having passed, we first revisit the results and assess the forward prediction performance. Then, the background seismicity rate, which may also offer valuable long-term forecasting information, is incorporated into earthquake prediction for Yunnan Province. To assess the effectiveness of the prediction, the Molchan Error Diagram (MED), Probability Gain (PG), and Probability Difference (PD) are employed. Using a 25-year catalog, the spatial <i>b</i> value and background seismicity rate across five temporal windows are calculated, and 86 M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes as prediction samples are examined. The predictive performance of the background seismicity rate and <i>b</i> value is comprehensively tested and shown to be useful for 5-year forecasting in Yunnan. The performance of the <i>b</i> value exhibits a positive correlation with the predicted earthquake magnitude. The synergistic effect of combining these two predictors is also revealed. Finally, using the threshold corresponding to the maximum <i>PD</i>, we integrate the forecast information of background seismicity rates and the <i>b</i> value. A forward prediction is derived for the period from January 2025 to December 2029. This study can be helpful for disaster preparedness and risk management in Yunnan Province, China.https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/27/2/205earthquake forecast<i>b</i> valuebackground seismicity rateMolchan Error DiagramYunnan Province |
| spellingShingle | Yuchen Zhang Rui Wang Haixia Shi Miao Miao Jiancang Zhuang Ying Chang Changsheng Jiang Lingyuan Meng Danning Li Lifang Liu Youjin Su Zhenguo Zhang Peng Han Earthquake Forecasting Based on <i>b</i> Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China Entropy earthquake forecast <i>b</i> value background seismicity rate Molchan Error Diagram Yunnan Province |
| title | Earthquake Forecasting Based on <i>b</i> Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_full | Earthquake Forecasting Based on <i>b</i> Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_fullStr | Earthquake Forecasting Based on <i>b</i> Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Earthquake Forecasting Based on <i>b</i> Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_short | Earthquake Forecasting Based on <i>b</i> Value and Background Seismicity Rate in Yunnan Province, China |
| title_sort | earthquake forecasting based on i b i value and background seismicity rate in yunnan province china |
| topic | earthquake forecast <i>b</i> value background seismicity rate Molchan Error Diagram Yunnan Province |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/27/2/205 |
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