Simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae under climate change
With global warming, climate change had significant impacts on the distribution of species and their habitats. As one of the keystone species of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae plays a vital role in the alpine grassland ecosystem. Based on 750 distribution points...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989425000101 |
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| author | Yanni Song Hainan Chong Dawei Wang Haijun Xiao |
| author_facet | Yanni Song Hainan Chong Dawei Wang Haijun Xiao |
| author_sort | Yanni Song |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With global warming, climate change had significant impacts on the distribution of species and their habitats. As one of the keystone species of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae plays a vital role in the alpine grassland ecosystem. Based on 750 distribution points, 20 environmental variables, and the Global Human Influence Index (IGHP) database, the geographic distribution trends of plateau pika under current and three future periods (2030 s, 2050 s and 2090 s) in related three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) were simulated and analyzed. The results showed that: 1) Climate factors are the main factors changing the habitat selection of plateau pika, with the highest permutation contribution (28.5 %) and permutation importance (30.6 %) for isothermality of bio3. 2). The central and eastern parts of the QTP are potential distribution areas for plateau pika, with the current suitable area totaling 8.01 × 105 km2, accounting for 32.04 % of the QTP. 3) The suitable areas of plateau pika will gradually migrate to higher altitude areas, especially with more significant changes under high-emission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585). 4) Human activities have relatively limited impacts on the distribution pattern of plateau pika, mainly manifested as suitability changes in some local areas. This study revealed the spatio-temporal distribution changes of plateau pika under different climate scenarios, which may help to better understand the response mechanism of other plateau organisms to environmental changes. This study provided a scientific basis for the management of keystone species and their ecosystem services in the QTP. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b2780f17878843d48b0aec2467d8f868 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj-art-b2780f17878843d48b0aec2467d8f8682025-01-23T05:27:04ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942025-01-0157e03409Simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae under climate changeYanni Song0Hainan Chong1Dawei Wang2Haijun Xiao3School of Grassland Science, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaSchool of Grassland Science, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaState Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China; Western Agricultural Research Center, Chinese Academy of Agricultura Science, Changji 831100, China; Institute of Grassland Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Biohazard Monitoring and Green Prevention and Control in Artificial Grassland, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Hohhot 010010, China; Corresponding author at: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China.School of Grassland Science, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; Corresponding author.With global warming, climate change had significant impacts on the distribution of species and their habitats. As one of the keystone species of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae plays a vital role in the alpine grassland ecosystem. Based on 750 distribution points, 20 environmental variables, and the Global Human Influence Index (IGHP) database, the geographic distribution trends of plateau pika under current and three future periods (2030 s, 2050 s and 2090 s) in related three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) were simulated and analyzed. The results showed that: 1) Climate factors are the main factors changing the habitat selection of plateau pika, with the highest permutation contribution (28.5 %) and permutation importance (30.6 %) for isothermality of bio3. 2). The central and eastern parts of the QTP are potential distribution areas for plateau pika, with the current suitable area totaling 8.01 × 105 km2, accounting for 32.04 % of the QTP. 3) The suitable areas of plateau pika will gradually migrate to higher altitude areas, especially with more significant changes under high-emission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585). 4) Human activities have relatively limited impacts on the distribution pattern of plateau pika, mainly manifested as suitability changes in some local areas. This study revealed the spatio-temporal distribution changes of plateau pika under different climate scenarios, which may help to better understand the response mechanism of other plateau organisms to environmental changes. This study provided a scientific basis for the management of keystone species and their ecosystem services in the QTP.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989425000101Plateau pika Ochotona curzoniaeMaxEntKeystone speciesSpatial distributionClimate changeHuman activities |
| spellingShingle | Yanni Song Hainan Chong Dawei Wang Haijun Xiao Simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae under climate change Global Ecology and Conservation Plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae MaxEnt Keystone species Spatial distribution Climate change Human activities |
| title | Simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae under climate change |
| title_full | Simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae under climate change |
| title_short | Simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae under climate change |
| title_sort | simulation and response mechanism of potential geographical distribution of plateau pika ochotona curzoniae under climate change |
| topic | Plateau pika Ochotona curzoniae MaxEnt Keystone species Spatial distribution Climate change Human activities |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989425000101 |
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