Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature
Abstract An effective mechanism for determining tropical rainfall patterns in response to sea surface temperature (SST) increases with varying magnitude and horizontal distribution has not been developed thus far in climate change studies. In order to examine changes in precipitation pattern with in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-02-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076745 |
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| author | Masaki Toda Masahiro Watanabe |
| author_facet | Masaki Toda Masahiro Watanabe |
| author_sort | Masaki Toda |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract An effective mechanism for determining tropical rainfall patterns in response to sea surface temperature (SST) increases with varying magnitude and horizontal distribution has not been developed thus far in climate change studies. In order to examine changes in precipitation pattern with increasing SST, we conducted a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments using a 30 year record of observed SST for which either globally uniform SST increases of 1 K, 2 K, and 4 K or El Niño/La Niña‐like patterned SST anomaly has been imposed. Although the global‐mean precipitation linearly increases with the SST increase irrespective of its spatial distribution, regional precipitation changes were found to occur nonlinearly depending on the magnitude of the uniform SST increase. Owing to nonlinearity in the atmospheric circulation response, the regional hydrological sensitivity was larger with a smaller increase in SST. The precipitation response to the SST pattern was, however, quasi‐linear to the magnitude of the SST change and can be separated from the response to the uniform SST increase. This study thus emphasizes the importance of relative amplitudes of uniform and structured SST increases for future rainfall projection. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b15124c135664593aaac0eea00cbc8d1 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-b15124c135664593aaac0eea00cbc8d12025-08-20T01:51:44ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072018-02-014531551155810.1002/2017GL076745Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface TemperatureMasaki Toda0Masahiro Watanabe1Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo Kashiwa Chiba JapanAtmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo Kashiwa Chiba JapanAbstract An effective mechanism for determining tropical rainfall patterns in response to sea surface temperature (SST) increases with varying magnitude and horizontal distribution has not been developed thus far in climate change studies. In order to examine changes in precipitation pattern with increasing SST, we conducted a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments using a 30 year record of observed SST for which either globally uniform SST increases of 1 K, 2 K, and 4 K or El Niño/La Niña‐like patterned SST anomaly has been imposed. Although the global‐mean precipitation linearly increases with the SST increase irrespective of its spatial distribution, regional precipitation changes were found to occur nonlinearly depending on the magnitude of the uniform SST increase. Owing to nonlinearity in the atmospheric circulation response, the regional hydrological sensitivity was larger with a smaller increase in SST. The precipitation response to the SST pattern was, however, quasi‐linear to the magnitude of the SST change and can be separated from the response to the uniform SST increase. This study thus emphasizes the importance of relative amplitudes of uniform and structured SST increases for future rainfall projection.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076745hydrological cycleglobal warmingsea surface temperatureGCM |
| spellingShingle | Masaki Toda Masahiro Watanabe Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature Geophysical Research Letters hydrological cycle global warming sea surface temperature GCM |
| title | Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature |
| title_full | Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature |
| title_fullStr | Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature |
| title_short | Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature |
| title_sort | linear and nonlinear hydrological cycle responses to increasing sea surface temperature |
| topic | hydrological cycle global warming sea surface temperature GCM |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076745 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT masakitoda linearandnonlinearhydrologicalcycleresponsestoincreasingseasurfacetemperature AT masahirowatanabe linearandnonlinearhydrologicalcycleresponsestoincreasingseasurfacetemperature |