Global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021
Abstract Atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) are cardiac arrhythmias associated with high morbidity and mortality. This cross-sectional observational study assesses the epidemiological burden of AF/AFL concerning metabolic risk factors using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88744-4 |
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| author | Junqing Liang Jun Shen Yankai Guo Manzeremu Rejiepu Xiuwen Ling Xiaoyan Wang Yi Jian Xing Zhang Shijie Shao Baopeng Tang Ling Zhang |
| author_facet | Junqing Liang Jun Shen Yankai Guo Manzeremu Rejiepu Xiuwen Ling Xiaoyan Wang Yi Jian Xing Zhang Shijie Shao Baopeng Tang Ling Zhang |
| author_sort | Junqing Liang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) are cardiac arrhythmias associated with high morbidity and mortality. This cross-sectional observational study assesses the epidemiological burden of AF/AFL concerning metabolic risk factors using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), mortality, and estimated annual percentage change were calculated. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was utilized to predict future trends in ASDR and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for AF/AFL 2030. Between 1990 and 2021, ASDR rose from 34.22 to 34.94, whereas ASMR increased from 1.46 to 1.50 per 100,000 people. High/high–middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions showed decreasing trends in ASDR and ASMR, whereas low and middle SDI regions showed increasing trends. In 2021, the highest ASDR and ASMR were recorded in Australasia, North America, and Western Europe, with significant country-level variability. Projections indicate a declining trend in ASMR and stable ASDR through 2030. The global rise in AF/AFL attributable to metabolic risk factors necessitates comprehensive and region-specific public health strategies. Further research is warranted to develop and implement effective measures to mitigate these conditions and improve cardiovascular health outcomes worldwide. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| spelling | doaj-art-b0fda379338a4b36b98532b47d0c4bfb2025-02-09T12:35:08ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-02-0115111210.1038/s41598-025-88744-4Global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021Junqing Liang0Jun Shen1Yankai Guo2Manzeremu Rejiepu3Xiuwen Ling4Xiaoyan Wang5Yi Jian6Xing Zhang7Shijie Shao8Baopeng Tang9Ling Zhang10Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityEmergency Trauma Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityXinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Cardiac Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityAbstract Atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) are cardiac arrhythmias associated with high morbidity and mortality. This cross-sectional observational study assesses the epidemiological burden of AF/AFL concerning metabolic risk factors using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), mortality, and estimated annual percentage change were calculated. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was utilized to predict future trends in ASDR and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for AF/AFL 2030. Between 1990 and 2021, ASDR rose from 34.22 to 34.94, whereas ASMR increased from 1.46 to 1.50 per 100,000 people. High/high–middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions showed decreasing trends in ASDR and ASMR, whereas low and middle SDI regions showed increasing trends. In 2021, the highest ASDR and ASMR were recorded in Australasia, North America, and Western Europe, with significant country-level variability. Projections indicate a declining trend in ASMR and stable ASDR through 2030. The global rise in AF/AFL attributable to metabolic risk factors necessitates comprehensive and region-specific public health strategies. Further research is warranted to develop and implement effective measures to mitigate these conditions and improve cardiovascular health outcomes worldwide.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88744-4Global burden of diseaseAtrial fibrillation/atrial flutterMetabolic risk factors |
| spellingShingle | Junqing Liang Jun Shen Yankai Guo Manzeremu Rejiepu Xiuwen Ling Xiaoyan Wang Yi Jian Xing Zhang Shijie Shao Baopeng Tang Ling Zhang Global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021 Scientific Reports Global burden of disease Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter Metabolic risk factors |
| title | Global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_full | Global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_short | Global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_sort | global trends and epidemiological impact of metabolic risk factors on atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021 |
| topic | Global burden of disease Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter Metabolic risk factors |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88744-4 |
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