Food price dynamics in Turkey’s agricultural export market with selected machine learning approaches
Price fluctuations significantly impact supply and demand mechanisms, particularly in agriculture and food production. These effects are often persistent and challenging to adapt directly, making it crucial for agrarian countries to understand the factors driving these changes. This resea...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Bologna University press
2025-06-01
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| Series: | New Medit |
| Online Access: | https://newmedit.ciheam.org/2025/06/10/food-price-dynamics-in-turkeys-agricultural-export-market-with-selected-machine-learning-approaches/ |
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| Summary: | Price fluctuations significantly impact supply and demand mechanisms, particularly in
agriculture and food production. These effects are often persistent and challenging to
adapt directly, making it crucial for agrarian countries to understand the factors driving
these changes. This research focuses on calculating a specific food price index related
to Turkish food exports, with the goal of evaluating the factors contributing to volatility
in this index. Using data from 1991-2022, the analysis employed selected machine
learning methodologies to project potential policy interventions. The support vector
regression (SVR) predictions revealed that rising prices of exportable products are
driven by various factors, including cost items, food price inflation, unemployment
levels (as an indicator of income), and exchange rates. The predictions closely aligned
with the actual calculated variables, suggesting that variations in aggregate price
levels, exchange rates, and technology-related and import-dependent costs are critical
for observation and evaluation. These factors appear to play a more significant role in
determining price inflation for Turkish agricultural and food products. |
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| ISSN: | 2611-1128 |