Optimised block bootstrap: an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to South African economic time series data
This study introduced the optimized block bootstrap (OBB), a novel method designed to enhance time series prediction by reducing the number of blocks while maintaining their representativeness. OBB minimized block overlap, resulting in greater computational efficiency while preserving the temporal s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2024-10-01
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| Series: | AIMS Mathematics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/math.20241487?viewType=HTML |
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| author | James Daniel Kayode Ayinde Adewale F. Lukman Olayan Albalawi Jeza Allohibi Abdulmajeed Atiah Alharbi |
| author_facet | James Daniel Kayode Ayinde Adewale F. Lukman Olayan Albalawi Jeza Allohibi Abdulmajeed Atiah Alharbi |
| author_sort | James Daniel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study introduced the optimized block bootstrap (OBB), a novel method designed to enhance time series prediction by reducing the number of blocks while maintaining their representativeness. OBB minimized block overlap, resulting in greater computational efficiency while preserving the temporal structure of data. The method was evaluated through extensive simulations of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models and South Africa economic data which included inflation rates, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, interest rates, and unemployment rates. Results demonstrated that OBB consistently outperformd circular block bootstrap (CBB), providing more accurate forecasts with lower root mean square error (RMSE), which assessed variance, and lower mean absolute error (MAE), which measured bias, across various time series models and parameter settings. Consequently, the OBB method was applied to forecasting of the South Africa economic data, extending up to 2027. The novel approach presented by OBB offered a valuable tool for improving predictive accuracy in time series forecasting, with potential applications across diverse fields such as finance and environmental modeling. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b0692de195964675835c640581c324ba |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2473-6988 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | AIMS Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-b0692de195964675835c640581c324ba2025-08-20T02:13:52ZengAIMS PressAIMS Mathematics2473-69882024-10-01911307813081510.3934/math.20241487Optimised block bootstrap: an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to South African economic time series dataJames Daniel 0Kayode Ayinde 1Adewale F. Lukman2Olayan Albalawi3Jeza Allohibi4Abdulmajeed Atiah Alharbi 51. Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria2. Northwest Missouri State University, Maryvile, USA3. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, North Dakota, USA4. Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Tabuk, Tabuk, Saudi Arabia5. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Taibah University, Al-Madinah Al-Munawara 42353, Saudi Arabia5. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Taibah University, Al-Madinah Al-Munawara 42353, Saudi ArabiaThis study introduced the optimized block bootstrap (OBB), a novel method designed to enhance time series prediction by reducing the number of blocks while maintaining their representativeness. OBB minimized block overlap, resulting in greater computational efficiency while preserving the temporal structure of data. The method was evaluated through extensive simulations of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models and South Africa economic data which included inflation rates, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, interest rates, and unemployment rates. Results demonstrated that OBB consistently outperformd circular block bootstrap (CBB), providing more accurate forecasts with lower root mean square error (RMSE), which assessed variance, and lower mean absolute error (MAE), which measured bias, across various time series models and parameter settings. Consequently, the OBB method was applied to forecasting of the South Africa economic data, extending up to 2027. The novel approach presented by OBB offered a valuable tool for improving predictive accuracy in time series forecasting, with potential applications across diverse fields such as finance and environmental modeling.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/math.20241487?viewType=HTMLbootstrap methodautoregressive moving average (arma)measures of accuracycircular block bootstrap (cbb)optimised block bootstrap (obb) |
| spellingShingle | James Daniel Kayode Ayinde Adewale F. Lukman Olayan Albalawi Jeza Allohibi Abdulmajeed Atiah Alharbi Optimised block bootstrap: an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to South African economic time series data AIMS Mathematics bootstrap method autoregressive moving average (arma) measures of accuracy circular block bootstrap (cbb) optimised block bootstrap (obb) |
| title | Optimised block bootstrap: an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to South African economic time series data |
| title_full | Optimised block bootstrap: an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to South African economic time series data |
| title_fullStr | Optimised block bootstrap: an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to South African economic time series data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimised block bootstrap: an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to South African economic time series data |
| title_short | Optimised block bootstrap: an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to South African economic time series data |
| title_sort | optimised block bootstrap an efficient variant of circular block bootstrap method with application to south african economic time series data |
| topic | bootstrap method autoregressive moving average (arma) measures of accuracy circular block bootstrap (cbb) optimised block bootstrap (obb) |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/math.20241487?viewType=HTML |
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