North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and Trends
Abstract Using 42 years of reanalysis data, we investigate regional, storm‐relative characteristics of three groups of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification: slightly, moderately, and rapidly intensifying. Probability density functions are distinct between these groups for vertical wind shear, s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104803 |
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| author | Sharanya J. Majumdar Samantha Nebylitsa Philip J. Klotzbach Cameron Masiello Zachary R. Michael |
| author_facet | Sharanya J. Majumdar Samantha Nebylitsa Philip J. Klotzbach Cameron Masiello Zachary R. Michael |
| author_sort | Sharanya J. Majumdar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Using 42 years of reanalysis data, we investigate regional, storm‐relative characteristics of three groups of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification: slightly, moderately, and rapidly intensifying. Probability density functions are distinct between these groups for vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature (SST), and radius of maximum winds (RMW), but less so for relative humidity (RH). In the Gulf of Mexico and southern North Atlantic, shear and RMW are good predictors. In the open Atlantic, north of 22°N, shear and SST are the best predictors. In the Caribbean, weaker relationships suggest low statistical predictability in a region where RI cases increased between 1980–2000 and 2001–2021. Of our storm‐relative variables tested, increasing SST appears to be most closely connected to the 36% increase in rapidly intensifying events between the two periods, whereas shear and RH are not significantly more favorable. The variability across regions, periods, and variables motivates further investigation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b04b75d9cc124244a8bd84d86a1807f8 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-b04b75d9cc124244a8bd84d86a1807f82025-08-20T03:06:04ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072023-09-015017n/an/a10.1029/2023GL104803North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and TrendsSharanya J. Majumdar0Samantha Nebylitsa1Philip J. Klotzbach2Cameron Masiello3Zachary R. Michael4Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Miami Miami FL USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences University of Miami Miami FL USADepartment of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences University of Miami Miami FL USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences University of Miami Miami FL USAAbstract Using 42 years of reanalysis data, we investigate regional, storm‐relative characteristics of three groups of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification: slightly, moderately, and rapidly intensifying. Probability density functions are distinct between these groups for vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature (SST), and radius of maximum winds (RMW), but less so for relative humidity (RH). In the Gulf of Mexico and southern North Atlantic, shear and RMW are good predictors. In the open Atlantic, north of 22°N, shear and SST are the best predictors. In the Caribbean, weaker relationships suggest low statistical predictability in a region where RI cases increased between 1980–2000 and 2001–2021. Of our storm‐relative variables tested, increasing SST appears to be most closely connected to the 36% increase in rapidly intensifying events between the two periods, whereas shear and RH are not significantly more favorable. The variability across regions, periods, and variables motivates further investigation.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104803hurricanestropical cyclonesrapid intensification |
| spellingShingle | Sharanya J. Majumdar Samantha Nebylitsa Philip J. Klotzbach Cameron Masiello Zachary R. Michael North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and Trends Geophysical Research Letters hurricanes tropical cyclones rapid intensification |
| title | North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and Trends |
| title_full | North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and Trends |
| title_fullStr | North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and Trends |
| title_full_unstemmed | North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and Trends |
| title_short | North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and Trends |
| title_sort | north atlantic tropical cyclone intensification regional drivers and trends |
| topic | hurricanes tropical cyclones rapid intensification |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104803 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sharanyajmajumdar northatlantictropicalcycloneintensificationregionaldriversandtrends AT samanthanebylitsa northatlantictropicalcycloneintensificationregionaldriversandtrends AT philipjklotzbach northatlantictropicalcycloneintensificationregionaldriversandtrends AT cameronmasiello northatlantictropicalcycloneintensificationregionaldriversandtrends AT zacharyrmichael northatlantictropicalcycloneintensificationregionaldriversandtrends |