Nomogram-Based New Recurrence Predicting System in Early-Stage Papillary Thyroid Cancer
Background and Objectives. The clinicopathological risk factors to predict recurrence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patients remain controversial. Methods. PTC patients treated with thyroidectomy between January 1997 and December 2011 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University (Zhej...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Endocrinology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/1029092 |
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| author | Yongfeng Ding Zhuochao Mao Jiaying Ruan Xingyun Su Linrong Li Thomas J. Fahey Weibin Wang Lisong Teng |
| author_facet | Yongfeng Ding Zhuochao Mao Jiaying Ruan Xingyun Su Linrong Li Thomas J. Fahey Weibin Wang Lisong Teng |
| author_sort | Yongfeng Ding |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background and Objectives. The clinicopathological risk factors to predict recurrence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patients remain controversial. Methods. PTC patients treated with thyroidectomy between January 1997 and December 2011 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University (Zhejiang cohort) were included. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify independent recurrence predictors. Then, the nomogram model for predicting probability of recurrence was built. Results. According to Zhejiang cohort (N = 1,697), we found that the 10-year event-free survival (EFS) rates of PTC patients with early-stage (TNM stages I, II, and III) were not well discriminated (91.6%, 89.0%, and 90.7%; P=0.768). The multivariate Cox model identified age, bilaterality, tumor size, and nodal status as independent risk factors for tumor recurrence in PTC patients with TNM stages I–III. We then developed a nomogram with the C-index 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.76), which was significantly higher (P<0.0001) than the AJCC staging system (0.52). In the validation group, the C-index remained at a similar level. Conclusions. In this study, we build up a new recurrence predicting system and establish a nomogram for early-stage PTC patients. This prognostic model may better predict individualized outcomes and conduct personalized treatments. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b034a3048bb6424e823e86af85a88421 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1687-8337 1687-8345 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Endocrinology |
| spelling | doaj-art-b034a3048bb6424e823e86af85a884212025-08-20T02:19:18ZengWileyInternational Journal of Endocrinology1687-83371687-83452019-01-01201910.1155/2019/10290921029092Nomogram-Based New Recurrence Predicting System in Early-Stage Papillary Thyroid CancerYongfeng Ding0Zhuochao Mao1Jiaying Ruan2Xingyun Su3Linrong Li4Thomas J. Fahey5Weibin Wang6Lisong Teng7Cancer Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaCancer Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaCancer Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaCancer Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Surgery, New York Presbyterian Hospital-Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USACancer Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaCancer Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaBackground and Objectives. The clinicopathological risk factors to predict recurrence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patients remain controversial. Methods. PTC patients treated with thyroidectomy between January 1997 and December 2011 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University (Zhejiang cohort) were included. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify independent recurrence predictors. Then, the nomogram model for predicting probability of recurrence was built. Results. According to Zhejiang cohort (N = 1,697), we found that the 10-year event-free survival (EFS) rates of PTC patients with early-stage (TNM stages I, II, and III) were not well discriminated (91.6%, 89.0%, and 90.7%; P=0.768). The multivariate Cox model identified age, bilaterality, tumor size, and nodal status as independent risk factors for tumor recurrence in PTC patients with TNM stages I–III. We then developed a nomogram with the C-index 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.76), which was significantly higher (P<0.0001) than the AJCC staging system (0.52). In the validation group, the C-index remained at a similar level. Conclusions. In this study, we build up a new recurrence predicting system and establish a nomogram for early-stage PTC patients. This prognostic model may better predict individualized outcomes and conduct personalized treatments.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/1029092 |
| spellingShingle | Yongfeng Ding Zhuochao Mao Jiaying Ruan Xingyun Su Linrong Li Thomas J. Fahey Weibin Wang Lisong Teng Nomogram-Based New Recurrence Predicting System in Early-Stage Papillary Thyroid Cancer International Journal of Endocrinology |
| title | Nomogram-Based New Recurrence Predicting System in Early-Stage Papillary Thyroid Cancer |
| title_full | Nomogram-Based New Recurrence Predicting System in Early-Stage Papillary Thyroid Cancer |
| title_fullStr | Nomogram-Based New Recurrence Predicting System in Early-Stage Papillary Thyroid Cancer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nomogram-Based New Recurrence Predicting System in Early-Stage Papillary Thyroid Cancer |
| title_short | Nomogram-Based New Recurrence Predicting System in Early-Stage Papillary Thyroid Cancer |
| title_sort | nomogram based new recurrence predicting system in early stage papillary thyroid cancer |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/1029092 |
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