Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt model
Climate change has significantly impacted the distribution patterns of medicinal plants, highlighting the need for accurate models to predict future habitat shifts. In this study, the Maximum Entropy model to analyze the habitat distribution of Pulsatilla chinensis (Bunge) Regel under current condit...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Plant Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1538566/full |
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| author | Yanan Wu Lanmeng Yan Hongjian Shen Rui Guan Qianqian Ge Ling Huang Emelda Rosseleena Rohani Jinmei Ou Rongchun Han Rongchun Han Xiaohui Tong Xiaohui Tong |
| author_facet | Yanan Wu Lanmeng Yan Hongjian Shen Rui Guan Qianqian Ge Ling Huang Emelda Rosseleena Rohani Jinmei Ou Rongchun Han Rongchun Han Xiaohui Tong Xiaohui Tong |
| author_sort | Yanan Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change has significantly impacted the distribution patterns of medicinal plants, highlighting the need for accurate models to predict future habitat shifts. In this study, the Maximum Entropy model to analyze the habitat distribution of Pulsatilla chinensis (Bunge) Regel under current conditions and two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Based on 105 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables, precipitation of the wettest quarter, isothermality, average November temperature, and the standard deviation of temperature seasonality were identified as key factors influencing the habitat suitability for P. chinensis. The reliability of the model was supported by a mean area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.916 and a True Skill Statistic (TSS) value of 0.608. The results indicated that although the total suitable habitat for P. chinensis expanded under both scenarios, the highly suitable area contracted significantly under SSP585 compared to SSP245. This suggests the importance of incorporating climate change considerations into P. chinensis management strategies to address potential challenges arising from future ecosystem dynamics. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b009f53bdc42453b85f32206aff0a6a6 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1664-462X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Plant Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-b009f53bdc42453b85f32206aff0a6a62025-08-20T03:09:48ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2025-05-011610.3389/fpls.2025.15385661538566Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt modelYanan Wu0Lanmeng Yan1Hongjian Shen2Rui Guan3Qianqian Ge4Ling Huang5Emelda Rosseleena Rohani6Jinmei Ou7Rongchun Han8Rongchun Han9Xiaohui Tong10Xiaohui Tong11School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaSchool of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaSchool of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaSchool of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaSchool of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaSchool of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaInstitute of Systems Biology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysi, Bangi, MalaysiaSchool of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaSchool of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaJoint Research Center for Chinese Herbal Medicine of Anhui of IHM, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaSchool of Life Sciences, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, ChinaDepartment of Research and Development, Functional Activity and Resource Utilization on Edible and Medicinal Fungi Joint Laboratory of Anhui Province, Jinzhai, ChinaClimate change has significantly impacted the distribution patterns of medicinal plants, highlighting the need for accurate models to predict future habitat shifts. In this study, the Maximum Entropy model to analyze the habitat distribution of Pulsatilla chinensis (Bunge) Regel under current conditions and two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Based on 105 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables, precipitation of the wettest quarter, isothermality, average November temperature, and the standard deviation of temperature seasonality were identified as key factors influencing the habitat suitability for P. chinensis. The reliability of the model was supported by a mean area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.916 and a True Skill Statistic (TSS) value of 0.608. The results indicated that although the total suitable habitat for P. chinensis expanded under both scenarios, the highly suitable area contracted significantly under SSP585 compared to SSP245. This suggests the importance of incorporating climate change considerations into P. chinensis management strategies to address potential challenges arising from future ecosystem dynamics.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1538566/fullArcGISecological suitability zoningfuture climate changeMaxEnt modelPulsatilla chinensis |
| spellingShingle | Yanan Wu Lanmeng Yan Hongjian Shen Rui Guan Qianqian Ge Ling Huang Emelda Rosseleena Rohani Jinmei Ou Rongchun Han Rongchun Han Xiaohui Tong Xiaohui Tong Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt model Frontiers in Plant Science ArcGIS ecological suitability zoning future climate change MaxEnt model Pulsatilla chinensis |
| title | Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt model |
| title_full | Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt model |
| title_fullStr | Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt model |
| title_short | Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt model |
| title_sort | potentially suitable geographical area for pulsatilla chinensis regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the maxent model |
| topic | ArcGIS ecological suitability zoning future climate change MaxEnt model Pulsatilla chinensis |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1538566/full |
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