Long‐term Caspian Sea level change
Abstract Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model‐predicted precipitation (P), evapora...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2017-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073958 |
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| author | J. L. Chen T. Pekker C. R. Wilson B. D. Tapley A. G. Kostianoy J.‐F. Cretaux E. S. Safarov |
| author_facet | J. L. Chen T. Pekker C. R. Wilson B. D. Tapley A. G. Kostianoy J.‐F. Cretaux E. S. Safarov |
| author_sort | J. L. Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model‐predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long‐term CSL changes for 1979–2015 and show that PER (P‐E + R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop (~−6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979–1995 and 1996–2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of ~+12.38 and ~−6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long‐term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-afcf7ba01b464f8cb35a7e57bcb2ff24 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2017-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-afcf7ba01b464f8cb35a7e57bcb2ff242025-08-20T03:10:28ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072017-07-0144136993700110.1002/2017GL073958Long‐term Caspian Sea level changeJ. L. Chen0T. Pekker1C. R. Wilson2B. D. Tapley3A. G. Kostianoy4J.‐F. Cretaux5E. S. Safarov6Center for Space Research University of Texas at Austin Austin Texas USACenter for Space Research University of Texas at Austin Austin Texas USACenter for Space Research University of Texas at Austin Austin Texas USACenter for Space Research University of Texas at Austin Austin Texas USAP.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology Moscow RussiaLegos/CNES Toulouse FranceDepartment of the Caspian Sea Level Problem Institute of Geography Baku AzerbaijanAbstract Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model‐predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long‐term CSL changes for 1979–2015 and show that PER (P‐E + R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop (~−6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979–1995 and 1996–2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of ~+12.38 and ~−6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long‐term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073958Caspian Seasea level changealtimeterdischargeprecipitationevaporation |
| spellingShingle | J. L. Chen T. Pekker C. R. Wilson B. D. Tapley A. G. Kostianoy J.‐F. Cretaux E. S. Safarov Long‐term Caspian Sea level change Geophysical Research Letters Caspian Sea sea level change altimeter discharge precipitation evaporation |
| title | Long‐term Caspian Sea level change |
| title_full | Long‐term Caspian Sea level change |
| title_fullStr | Long‐term Caspian Sea level change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long‐term Caspian Sea level change |
| title_short | Long‐term Caspian Sea level change |
| title_sort | long term caspian sea level change |
| topic | Caspian Sea sea level change altimeter discharge precipitation evaporation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073958 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jlchen longtermcaspiansealevelchange AT tpekker longtermcaspiansealevelchange AT crwilson longtermcaspiansealevelchange AT bdtapley longtermcaspiansealevelchange AT agkostianoy longtermcaspiansealevelchange AT jfcretaux longtermcaspiansealevelchange AT essafarov longtermcaspiansealevelchange |