Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US

In 2022, consecutive sweeps of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-derived lineages (B.1.1.529*) maintained viral transmission despite extensive antigen exposure from both vaccinations and infections. To better understand Omicron variant emergence in the context of the dynamic fitness landscape...

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Main Authors: Nicholas F. G. Chen, Kien Pham, Chrispin Chaguza, Rafael Lopes, Fayette Klaassen, Chaney C. Kalinich, Yale SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance Initiative, Nicholas Kerantzas, Sameer Pandya, David Ferguson, Wade Schulz, Daniel M. Weinberger, Virginia E. Pitzer, Joshua L. Warren, Nathan D. Grubaugh, Anne M. Hahn
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Viruses
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/7/1020
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author Nicholas F. G. Chen
Kien Pham
Chrispin Chaguza
Rafael Lopes
Fayette Klaassen
Chaney C. Kalinich
Yale SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance Initiative
Nicholas Kerantzas
Sameer Pandya
David Ferguson
Wade Schulz
Daniel M. Weinberger
Virginia E. Pitzer
Joshua L. Warren
Nathan D. Grubaugh
Anne M. Hahn
author_facet Nicholas F. G. Chen
Kien Pham
Chrispin Chaguza
Rafael Lopes
Fayette Klaassen
Chaney C. Kalinich
Yale SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance Initiative
Nicholas Kerantzas
Sameer Pandya
David Ferguson
Wade Schulz
Daniel M. Weinberger
Virginia E. Pitzer
Joshua L. Warren
Nathan D. Grubaugh
Anne M. Hahn
author_sort Nicholas F. G. Chen
collection DOAJ
description In 2022, consecutive sweeps of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-derived lineages (B.1.1.529*) maintained viral transmission despite extensive antigen exposure from both vaccinations and infections. To better understand Omicron variant emergence in the context of the dynamic fitness landscape of 2022, we aimed to explore putative drivers behind SARS-CoV-2 lineage replacements. Variant fitness is determined through its ability to either outrun previously dominant lineages or more efficiently circumvent host immune responses to previous infections and vaccinations. By analyzing data collected through our local genomic surveillance program from Connecticut, USA, we compared emerging Omicron lineages’ growth rates, estimated infections, effective reproductive rates, average viral copy numbers, and likelihood for causing infections in recently vaccinated individuals. We find that newly emerging Omicron lineages outcompeted dominant lineages through a combination of enhanced viral shedding or advanced immune escape depending on the population-level exposure state. This analysis integrates individual-level sequencing data with demographic, vaccination, laboratory, and epidemiological data and provides further insights into host–pathogen dynamics beyond public aggregate data.
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spelling doaj-art-af5e82790f2147f69f243e759fc1d18e2025-08-20T03:56:46ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152025-07-01177102010.3390/v17071020Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, USNicholas F. G. Chen0Kien Pham1Chrispin Chaguza2Rafael Lopes3Fayette Klaassen4Chaney C. Kalinich5Yale SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance InitiativeNicholas Kerantzas6Sameer Pandya7David Ferguson8Wade Schulz9Daniel M. Weinberger10Virginia E. Pitzer11Joshua L. Warren12Nathan D. Grubaugh13Anne M. Hahn14Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Global Health & Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USADepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Laboratory Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Laboratory Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Laboratory Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Laboratory Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USAPublic Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USADepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USAIn 2022, consecutive sweeps of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-derived lineages (B.1.1.529*) maintained viral transmission despite extensive antigen exposure from both vaccinations and infections. To better understand Omicron variant emergence in the context of the dynamic fitness landscape of 2022, we aimed to explore putative drivers behind SARS-CoV-2 lineage replacements. Variant fitness is determined through its ability to either outrun previously dominant lineages or more efficiently circumvent host immune responses to previous infections and vaccinations. By analyzing data collected through our local genomic surveillance program from Connecticut, USA, we compared emerging Omicron lineages’ growth rates, estimated infections, effective reproductive rates, average viral copy numbers, and likelihood for causing infections in recently vaccinated individuals. We find that newly emerging Omicron lineages outcompeted dominant lineages through a combination of enhanced viral shedding or advanced immune escape depending on the population-level exposure state. This analysis integrates individual-level sequencing data with demographic, vaccination, laboratory, and epidemiological data and provides further insights into host–pathogen dynamics beyond public aggregate data.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/7/1020variant fitnessGenomic surveillanceviral evolution
spellingShingle Nicholas F. G. Chen
Kien Pham
Chrispin Chaguza
Rafael Lopes
Fayette Klaassen
Chaney C. Kalinich
Yale SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance Initiative
Nicholas Kerantzas
Sameer Pandya
David Ferguson
Wade Schulz
Daniel M. Weinberger
Virginia E. Pitzer
Joshua L. Warren
Nathan D. Grubaugh
Anne M. Hahn
Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US
Viruses
variant fitness
Genomic surveillance
viral evolution
title Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US
title_full Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US
title_fullStr Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US
title_full_unstemmed Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US
title_short Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US
title_sort integrated analysis of the 2022 sars cov 2 omicron lineage replacement dynamics in connecticut us
topic variant fitness
Genomic surveillance
viral evolution
url https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/7/1020
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