COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia?
This paper presents new data on the age structure of hospitalised SARI (severe acute respiratory infection) patients, with or without COVID-19, broken down by gender, place of infection, and region. The leading hypothesis that COVID-19 deaths are overestimated despite the high share of excess deaths...
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| Language: | English |
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Institute of Social Science, Belgrade
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Stanovništvo |
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| Online Access: | https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/441 |
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| author | Damir Josipovič |
| author_facet | Damir Josipovič |
| author_sort | Damir Josipovič |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents new data on the age structure of hospitalised SARI (severe acute respiratory infection) patients, with or without COVID-19, broken down by gender, place of infection, and region. The leading hypothesis that COVID-19 deaths are overestimated despite the high share of excess deaths was confirmed, bringing to light the important issue of the demographic breakdown of the population at risk. Thus, the main reason for the decreasing number of COVID-19 deaths is to be sought within the exhausted demographic pool of the elderly population in 2020, when the mortality rate was 19% higher compared to the previous five-year period (2015–2019). Demographic disparities across regions are immense and statistically explain the differences in the “infected versus deceased” ratio. The excess mortality in 2020 was unusually high, but the projected value for 2020 based on the mortality pattern across age groups from 2015 to 2019 contributed up to one-third of the surplus. So, for one-quarter of alleged COVID-19 deaths (roughly 600 out of some 3,300 in 2020), death was expected to take place in 2020 anyway. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-af5e044df8784cedba52ffba3b364877 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0038-982X 2217-3986 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Institute of Social Science, Belgrade |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Stanovništvo |
| spelling | doaj-art-af5e044df8784cedba52ffba3b3648772025-08-20T03:14:33ZengInstitute of Social Science, BelgradeStanovništvo0038-982X2217-39862021-06-01591COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia?Damir Josipovič0Institute for Ethnic Studies, Ljubljana (Slovenia)This paper presents new data on the age structure of hospitalised SARI (severe acute respiratory infection) patients, with or without COVID-19, broken down by gender, place of infection, and region. The leading hypothesis that COVID-19 deaths are overestimated despite the high share of excess deaths was confirmed, bringing to light the important issue of the demographic breakdown of the population at risk. Thus, the main reason for the decreasing number of COVID-19 deaths is to be sought within the exhausted demographic pool of the elderly population in 2020, when the mortality rate was 19% higher compared to the previous five-year period (2015–2019). Demographic disparities across regions are immense and statistically explain the differences in the “infected versus deceased” ratio. The excess mortality in 2020 was unusually high, but the projected value for 2020 based on the mortality pattern across age groups from 2015 to 2019 contributed up to one-third of the surplus. So, for one-quarter of alleged COVID-19 deaths (roughly 600 out of some 3,300 in 2020), death was expected to take place in 2020 anyway.https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/441COVID-19 deathsexcess mortalityage structureelderlypopulation projections |
| spellingShingle | Damir Josipovič COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia? Stanovništvo COVID-19 deaths excess mortality age structure elderly population projections |
| title | COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia? |
| title_full | COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia? |
| title_fullStr | COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia? |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia? |
| title_short | COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia? |
| title_sort | covid 19 and excess mortality was it possible to lower the number of deaths in slovenia |
| topic | COVID-19 deaths excess mortality age structure elderly population projections |
| url | https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/441 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT damirjosipovic covid19andexcessmortalitywasitpossibletolowerthenumberofdeathsinslovenia |