An Interpretable and Generalizable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Asthma Outcomes: Integrating AutoML and Explainable AI Techniques

Asthma remains a prevalent chronic condition, impacting millions globally and presenting significant clinical and economic challenges. This study develops a predictive model for asthma outcomes, leveraging automated machine learning (AutoML) and explainable AI (XAI) to balance high predictive accura...

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Main Authors: Salman Mahmood, Raza Hasan, Saqib Hussain, Rochak Adhikari
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-01-01
Series:World
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/6/1/15
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author Salman Mahmood
Raza Hasan
Saqib Hussain
Rochak Adhikari
author_facet Salman Mahmood
Raza Hasan
Saqib Hussain
Rochak Adhikari
author_sort Salman Mahmood
collection DOAJ
description Asthma remains a prevalent chronic condition, impacting millions globally and presenting significant clinical and economic challenges. This study develops a predictive model for asthma outcomes, leveraging automated machine learning (AutoML) and explainable AI (XAI) to balance high predictive accuracy with interpretability. Using a comprehensive dataset of demographic, clinical, and respiratory function data, we employed AutoGluon to automate model selection, optimization, and ensembling, resulting in a model with 98.99% accuracy and a 0.9996 ROC-AUC score. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and LIME (Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations) were applied to provide both global and local interpretability, ensuring that clinicians can trust and understand model predictions. Additionally, counterfactual analysis enabled hypothetical scenario exploration, supporting personalized asthma management by allowing clinicians to assess potential interventions for individual patient risk profiles. To facilitate clinical adoption, a Streamlit v1.41.0 application was developed for real-time access to predictions and interpretability. This study addresses key gaps in asthma prediction, notably in model transparency and generalizability, while providing a practical tool for enhancing personalized care. Future research could expand the validation across diverse patient populations to reinforce the model’s robustness in broader clinical environments.
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spelling doaj-art-aee5b7bb2060482a888d1c3c6c28b84c2025-08-20T02:43:05ZengMDPI AGWorld2673-40602025-01-01611510.3390/world6010015An Interpretable and Generalizable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Asthma Outcomes: Integrating AutoML and Explainable AI TechniquesSalman Mahmood0Raza Hasan1Saqib Hussain2Rochak Adhikari3Department of Science and Engineering, Nazeer Hussain University, ST-2, Near Karimabad, Karachi 75950, PakistanDepartment of Computer Science, Solent University, Southampton SO14 0YN, UKComputer and Information Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8QH, UKDepartment of Computer Science, Solent University, Southampton SO14 0YN, UKAsthma remains a prevalent chronic condition, impacting millions globally and presenting significant clinical and economic challenges. This study develops a predictive model for asthma outcomes, leveraging automated machine learning (AutoML) and explainable AI (XAI) to balance high predictive accuracy with interpretability. Using a comprehensive dataset of demographic, clinical, and respiratory function data, we employed AutoGluon to automate model selection, optimization, and ensembling, resulting in a model with 98.99% accuracy and a 0.9996 ROC-AUC score. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and LIME (Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations) were applied to provide both global and local interpretability, ensuring that clinicians can trust and understand model predictions. Additionally, counterfactual analysis enabled hypothetical scenario exploration, supporting personalized asthma management by allowing clinicians to assess potential interventions for individual patient risk profiles. To facilitate clinical adoption, a Streamlit v1.41.0 application was developed for real-time access to predictions and interpretability. This study addresses key gaps in asthma prediction, notably in model transparency and generalizability, while providing a practical tool for enhancing personalized care. Future research could expand the validation across diverse patient populations to reinforce the model’s robustness in broader clinical environments.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/6/1/15asthma predictionmachine learningAutoMLexplainable AISHAPLIME
spellingShingle Salman Mahmood
Raza Hasan
Saqib Hussain
Rochak Adhikari
An Interpretable and Generalizable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Asthma Outcomes: Integrating AutoML and Explainable AI Techniques
World
asthma prediction
machine learning
AutoML
explainable AI
SHAP
LIME
title An Interpretable and Generalizable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Asthma Outcomes: Integrating AutoML and Explainable AI Techniques
title_full An Interpretable and Generalizable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Asthma Outcomes: Integrating AutoML and Explainable AI Techniques
title_fullStr An Interpretable and Generalizable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Asthma Outcomes: Integrating AutoML and Explainable AI Techniques
title_full_unstemmed An Interpretable and Generalizable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Asthma Outcomes: Integrating AutoML and Explainable AI Techniques
title_short An Interpretable and Generalizable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Asthma Outcomes: Integrating AutoML and Explainable AI Techniques
title_sort interpretable and generalizable machine learning model for predicting asthma outcomes integrating automl and explainable ai techniques
topic asthma prediction
machine learning
AutoML
explainable AI
SHAP
LIME
url https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/6/1/15
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