Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United States
Abstract Railways’ susceptibility to extreme heat disrupts operations (e.g., track buckling, speed restrictions) and compromises the reliability, safety, and sustainability of rail travel. This study evaluates the susceptibility of the Amtrak rail network to extreme heat by assessing connectivity an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | npj Urban Sustainability |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00227-7 |
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| author | Fatemeh Janatabadi Luis Ortiz Alireza Ermagun |
| author_facet | Fatemeh Janatabadi Luis Ortiz Alireza Ermagun |
| author_sort | Fatemeh Janatabadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Railways’ susceptibility to extreme heat disrupts operations (e.g., track buckling, speed restrictions) and compromises the reliability, safety, and sustainability of rail travel. This study evaluates the susceptibility of the Amtrak rail network to extreme heat by assessing connectivity and ridership loss at the state, county, and station levels under moderate to severe disruption scenarios. At the state level, results indicate that states with higher station connectivity and ridership experience the greatest connectivity loss. Major hubs in New York, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia, with annual ridership between 3 and 8 million, are projected to lose 4 to 9 connections under extreme heat conditions. At the county level, mid-century projections indicate persistent vulnerability in counties such as New York (NY), Philadelphia (PA), and Baltimore (MD), while counties such as Henrico (VA), Sangamon (IL), and Richmond (NC) are expected to experience rising susceptibility due to increasing heat risk. At the station level, climate adaptation prioritization grounded in current and projected heat exposure, connectivity, and ridership indicates that high-priority stations for climate adaptation are disproportionately concentrated in urbanized areas. The findings underscore the need to integrate forward-looking climate data into route alignment, material specifications, station siting, and network expansion decisions to ensure long-term reliability and operational continuity under escalating climate stressors. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-aedbec5444fa4ed8b22d9afad24b9e0a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2661-8001 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Urban Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj-art-aedbec5444fa4ed8b22d9afad24b9e0a2025-08-20T03:45:11ZengNature Portfolionpj Urban Sustainability2661-80012025-06-015111310.1038/s42949-025-00227-7Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United StatesFatemeh Janatabadi0Luis Ortiz1Alireza Ermagun2Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science, George Mason UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason UniversityDepartment of Geography and Geoinformation Science, George Mason UniversityAbstract Railways’ susceptibility to extreme heat disrupts operations (e.g., track buckling, speed restrictions) and compromises the reliability, safety, and sustainability of rail travel. This study evaluates the susceptibility of the Amtrak rail network to extreme heat by assessing connectivity and ridership loss at the state, county, and station levels under moderate to severe disruption scenarios. At the state level, results indicate that states with higher station connectivity and ridership experience the greatest connectivity loss. Major hubs in New York, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia, with annual ridership between 3 and 8 million, are projected to lose 4 to 9 connections under extreme heat conditions. At the county level, mid-century projections indicate persistent vulnerability in counties such as New York (NY), Philadelphia (PA), and Baltimore (MD), while counties such as Henrico (VA), Sangamon (IL), and Richmond (NC) are expected to experience rising susceptibility due to increasing heat risk. At the station level, climate adaptation prioritization grounded in current and projected heat exposure, connectivity, and ridership indicates that high-priority stations for climate adaptation are disproportionately concentrated in urbanized areas. The findings underscore the need to integrate forward-looking climate data into route alignment, material specifications, station siting, and network expansion decisions to ensure long-term reliability and operational continuity under escalating climate stressors.https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00227-7 |
| spellingShingle | Fatemeh Janatabadi Luis Ortiz Alireza Ermagun Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United States npj Urban Sustainability |
| title | Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United States |
| title_full | Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United States |
| title_fullStr | Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United States |
| title_short | Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United States |
| title_sort | extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the united states |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00227-7 |
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