Evacuation Decisions during the Great East Japan Earthquake

We analyse evacuation decisions with data from a survey among 10,384 survivers of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. The decisions of individuals and families to evacuate or stay are influenced by the Tsunami warning system as well as the behaviour of the surrounding population which is modelled...

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Main Authors: Jan Dirk Schmöcker, Jun Ji, Fajar Prawira Belgiawan, Nobuhiro Uno
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Findings Press 2023-05-01
Series:Findings
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.77365
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author Jan Dirk Schmöcker
Jun Ji
Fajar Prawira Belgiawan
Nobuhiro Uno
author_facet Jan Dirk Schmöcker
Jun Ji
Fajar Prawira Belgiawan
Nobuhiro Uno
author_sort Jan Dirk Schmöcker
collection DOAJ
description We analyse evacuation decisions with data from a survey among 10,384 survivers of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. The decisions of individuals and families to evacuate or stay are influenced by the Tsunami warning system as well as the behaviour of the surrounding population which is modelled as the percentage of persons evacuating from a city. We formulate binary choice models with "field effects" where we try to control for the endogeneity with a 2-stage model approach. Our results quantify the field effect and suggest that with each minute the Tsunami warning arrives later, on average 3% less of the population are evacuating and surviving. We also show the importance of other variables, in particular the preparedness measures such as signage and evacuation drills.
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language English
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publisher Findings Press
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spelling doaj-art-ae8d05d42e724328ad786bbdb8e676492025-08-20T02:55:09ZengFindings PressFindings2652-88002023-05-0110.32866/001c.77365Evacuation Decisions during the Great East Japan EarthquakeJan Dirk SchmöckerJun JiFajar Prawira BelgiawanNobuhiro UnoWe analyse evacuation decisions with data from a survey among 10,384 survivers of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. The decisions of individuals and families to evacuate or stay are influenced by the Tsunami warning system as well as the behaviour of the surrounding population which is modelled as the percentage of persons evacuating from a city. We formulate binary choice models with "field effects" where we try to control for the endogeneity with a 2-stage model approach. Our results quantify the field effect and suggest that with each minute the Tsunami warning arrives later, on average 3% less of the population are evacuating and surviving. We also show the importance of other variables, in particular the preparedness measures such as signage and evacuation drills.https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.77365
spellingShingle Jan Dirk Schmöcker
Jun Ji
Fajar Prawira Belgiawan
Nobuhiro Uno
Evacuation Decisions during the Great East Japan Earthquake
Findings
title Evacuation Decisions during the Great East Japan Earthquake
title_full Evacuation Decisions during the Great East Japan Earthquake
title_fullStr Evacuation Decisions during the Great East Japan Earthquake
title_full_unstemmed Evacuation Decisions during the Great East Japan Earthquake
title_short Evacuation Decisions during the Great East Japan Earthquake
title_sort evacuation decisions during the great east japan earthquake
url https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.77365
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AT junji evacuationdecisionsduringthegreateastjapanearthquake
AT fajarprawirabelgiawan evacuationdecisionsduringthegreateastjapanearthquake
AT nobuhirouno evacuationdecisionsduringthegreateastjapanearthquake