A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures
Abstract Recent studies using regional climate models to make probabilistic projections break important new ground. However, they typically lack cross validation, pull the projections toward agreeing models (which can agree due to shared biases), and ignore model skill at reproducing internal variab...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069704 |
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| _version_ | 1850134517763801088 |
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| author | Roman Olson Yanan Fan Jason P. Evans |
| author_facet | Roman Olson Yanan Fan Jason P. Evans |
| author_sort | Roman Olson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Recent studies using regional climate models to make probabilistic projections break important new ground. However, they typically lack cross validation, pull the projections toward agreeing models (which can agree due to shared biases), and ignore model skill at reproducing internal variability when weighing the models. Here we conduct the first, to our knowledge, application of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to make probabilistic projections using regional climate models (RCMs). We weigh the RCMs from the NARCliM project based on their skill at representing temperature over 12 southeast Australian regions in terms of trend, bias, and internal variability. The weights do not depend on model agreement with other models. Using the weighted ensemble, we provide probabilistic seasonal temperature projections. We cross validate the method, and demonstrate that weighted projections are well calibrated and more precise than the unweighted ones. We find considerable differences between the weighted and the unweighted projections in some cases. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ae4df0e75a08435aa253467e8392ab56 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-ae4df0e75a08435aa253467e8392ab562025-08-20T02:31:41ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072016-07-0143147661766910.1002/2016GL069704A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperaturesRoman Olson0Yanan Fan1Jason P. Evans2Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science UNSW Australia Sydney New South Wales AustraliaSchool of Mathematics and Statistics UNSW Australia Sydney New South Wales AustraliaClimate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science UNSW Australia Sydney New South Wales AustraliaAbstract Recent studies using regional climate models to make probabilistic projections break important new ground. However, they typically lack cross validation, pull the projections toward agreeing models (which can agree due to shared biases), and ignore model skill at reproducing internal variability when weighing the models. Here we conduct the first, to our knowledge, application of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to make probabilistic projections using regional climate models (RCMs). We weigh the RCMs from the NARCliM project based on their skill at representing temperature over 12 southeast Australian regions in terms of trend, bias, and internal variability. The weights do not depend on model agreement with other models. Using the weighted ensemble, we provide probabilistic seasonal temperature projections. We cross validate the method, and demonstrate that weighted projections are well calibrated and more precise than the unweighted ones. We find considerable differences between the weighted and the unweighted projections in some cases.https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069704regional climate modelingBayesian model averagingprobabilistic predictionNARCliMsoutheast Australia |
| spellingShingle | Roman Olson Yanan Fan Jason P. Evans A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures Geophysical Research Letters regional climate modeling Bayesian model averaging probabilistic prediction NARCliM southeast Australia |
| title | A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures |
| title_full | A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures |
| title_fullStr | A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures |
| title_full_unstemmed | A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures |
| title_short | A simple method for Bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections: Application to southeast Australian temperatures |
| title_sort | simple method for bayesian model averaging of regional climate model projections application to southeast australian temperatures |
| topic | regional climate modeling Bayesian model averaging probabilistic prediction NARCliM southeast Australia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069704 |
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