Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United Kingdom
Introduction: In light of the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented several containment and prevention measures to slow down the rapid spread of the disease. Objectives: To compare the COVID-19 pandemic containment strategies implemented in Peru [World Health Organi...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
2022-04-01
|
| Series: | Revista de la Facultad de Medicina |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/revfacmed/article/view/92823 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849699071322750976 |
|---|---|
| author | Jeel Moya-Salazar Betsy Cañari Nahomi Zuñiga Alexis Jaime-Quispe Victor Rojas-Zumaran Hans Contreras-Pulache |
| author_facet | Jeel Moya-Salazar Betsy Cañari Nahomi Zuñiga Alexis Jaime-Quispe Victor Rojas-Zumaran Hans Contreras-Pulache |
| author_sort | Jeel Moya-Salazar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction: In light of the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented several containment and prevention measures to slow down the rapid spread of the disease.
Objectives: To compare the COVID-19 pandemic containment strategies implemented in Peru [World Health Organization (WHO) - confinement and social distancing] and the United Kingdom [herd immunity (HI)] in terms of morbidity and mortality, and to simulate the implementation of HI in Peru during the initial stage of the pandemic.
Materials and methods: Exploratory study with a simulation model based on official data obtained from both countries at the beginning of the pandemic. Mortality, case fatality, and infection rates documented within the first 55 days after the first COVID-19 case report in the United Kingdom and the start of the WHO-recommended containment and prevention strategy implementation in Peru were evaluated. Additionally, the impact of applying HI, according to WHO guidelines, as the initial strategy in Peru was simulated. The Paired-samples t-test was used to determine the differences between the two strategies at both stages of the study.
Results: During the follow-up period, 15 034 and 33 931 COVID-19 cases were reported in the United Kingdom and Peru, respectively. The case fatality rate was higher in the United Kingdom (7.82% vs. 2.74%), while the cumulative mortality rate was higher in Peru (2.89 vs. 1.74×100 000 inhabitants p=0.0001). Regarding the simulation, a minimum critical population of 60% (>19 million positive cases) was established for Peru to achieve HI, with 1 223 473.1 deaths and a hospitalization rate of 44 770×100 000 patients.
Conclusions: During the follow-up period (55 days), the United Kingdom’s strategy resulted in a higher case fatality rate, while the Peruvian strategy in over twice as many COVID-19 cases. The HI simulation strategy in Peru showed a sharp increase in all unfavorable indicators of the pandemic.
|
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-adf5de4ce5be4dc698d1686f6dc03997 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0120-0011 2357-3848 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista de la Facultad de Medicina |
| spelling | doaj-art-adf5de4ce5be4dc698d1686f6dc039972025-08-20T03:18:43ZengUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaRevista de la Facultad de Medicina0120-00112357-38482022-04-0170210.15446/revfacmed.v70n2.92823Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United KingdomJeel Moya-Salazar0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7357-4940Betsy Cañari1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4526-0848Nahomi Zuñiga2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9281-3508Alexis Jaime-Quispe3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3117-3495Victor Rojas-Zumaran4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9859-684XHans Contreras-Pulache5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2450-9349Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru. | Universidad Tecnológica del Perú - Faculty of Engineering - Biomedical School - Lima - Peru.Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru.Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru.Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru.Hospital Nacional Docente Madre Niño San Bartolomé - Department of Pathology - Lima - Peru.Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener – South American Center for Research in Education and Public Health - Lima - Peru.Introduction: In light of the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented several containment and prevention measures to slow down the rapid spread of the disease. Objectives: To compare the COVID-19 pandemic containment strategies implemented in Peru [World Health Organization (WHO) - confinement and social distancing] and the United Kingdom [herd immunity (HI)] in terms of morbidity and mortality, and to simulate the implementation of HI in Peru during the initial stage of the pandemic. Materials and methods: Exploratory study with a simulation model based on official data obtained from both countries at the beginning of the pandemic. Mortality, case fatality, and infection rates documented within the first 55 days after the first COVID-19 case report in the United Kingdom and the start of the WHO-recommended containment and prevention strategy implementation in Peru were evaluated. Additionally, the impact of applying HI, according to WHO guidelines, as the initial strategy in Peru was simulated. The Paired-samples t-test was used to determine the differences between the two strategies at both stages of the study. Results: During the follow-up period, 15 034 and 33 931 COVID-19 cases were reported in the United Kingdom and Peru, respectively. The case fatality rate was higher in the United Kingdom (7.82% vs. 2.74%), while the cumulative mortality rate was higher in Peru (2.89 vs. 1.74×100 000 inhabitants p=0.0001). Regarding the simulation, a minimum critical population of 60% (>19 million positive cases) was established for Peru to achieve HI, with 1 223 473.1 deaths and a hospitalization rate of 44 770×100 000 patients. Conclusions: During the follow-up period (55 days), the United Kingdom’s strategy resulted in a higher case fatality rate, while the Peruvian strategy in over twice as many COVID-19 cases. The HI simulation strategy in Peru showed a sharp increase in all unfavorable indicators of the pandemic. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/revfacmed/article/view/92823COVID-19SARS-CoV-2PeruUnited KingdomHerd ImmunityMortality |
| spellingShingle | Jeel Moya-Salazar Betsy Cañari Nahomi Zuñiga Alexis Jaime-Quispe Victor Rojas-Zumaran Hans Contreras-Pulache Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United Kingdom Revista de la Facultad de Medicina COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Peru United Kingdom Herd Immunity Mortality |
| title | Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United Kingdom |
| title_full | Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United Kingdom |
| title_fullStr | Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United Kingdom |
| title_full_unstemmed | Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United Kingdom |
| title_short | Deaths, infections, and herd immunity in the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in Peru and the United Kingdom |
| title_sort | deaths infections and herd immunity in the covid 19 pandemic a comparative study of the strategies for disease containment implemented in peru and the united kingdom |
| topic | COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Peru United Kingdom Herd Immunity Mortality |
| url | https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/revfacmed/article/view/92823 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jeelmoyasalazar deathsinfectionsandherdimmunityinthecovid19pandemicacomparativestudyofthestrategiesfordiseasecontainmentimplementedinperuandtheunitedkingdom AT betsycanari deathsinfectionsandherdimmunityinthecovid19pandemicacomparativestudyofthestrategiesfordiseasecontainmentimplementedinperuandtheunitedkingdom AT nahomizuniga deathsinfectionsandherdimmunityinthecovid19pandemicacomparativestudyofthestrategiesfordiseasecontainmentimplementedinperuandtheunitedkingdom AT alexisjaimequispe deathsinfectionsandherdimmunityinthecovid19pandemicacomparativestudyofthestrategiesfordiseasecontainmentimplementedinperuandtheunitedkingdom AT victorrojaszumaran deathsinfectionsandherdimmunityinthecovid19pandemicacomparativestudyofthestrategiesfordiseasecontainmentimplementedinperuandtheunitedkingdom AT hanscontreraspulache deathsinfectionsandherdimmunityinthecovid19pandemicacomparativestudyofthestrategiesfordiseasecontainmentimplementedinperuandtheunitedkingdom |