Evaluation of energy, carbon dioxide, and air emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States using EPA’s regional TIMES energy systems model
Electrifying on-road trucking is a strategy for decarbonizing the transportation sector. While battery-electric trucks have zero tailpipe emissions, the associated increase in electric sector grid emissions would offset a portion of on-road emission reductions. We utilize a techno-economic energy sy...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Energy |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ad958b |
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| author | Andrew Zalesak Noah Kittner Daniel H Loughlin Pervin Ozge Kaplan |
| author_facet | Andrew Zalesak Noah Kittner Daniel H Loughlin Pervin Ozge Kaplan |
| author_sort | Andrew Zalesak |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Electrifying on-road trucking is a strategy for decarbonizing the transportation sector. While battery-electric trucks have zero tailpipe emissions, the associated increase in electric sector grid emissions would offset a portion of on-road emission reductions. We utilize a techno-economic energy systems optimization model to assess the system-wide carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) and air pollutant emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States of America. Results suggest that by transitioning to 100% battery-electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MDVs and HDVs, together MHDVs), sales by 2050 would result in net CO _2 emission benefits should the electric sector decarbonize simultaneously. Combining a tax of $100 per ton of CO _2 , increasing at 5% per year, with electrification targets would yield a net 52% reduction in energy system CO _2 emissions in 2050. Across regions, the transportation sector nitrogen oxide (NO _X ) emissions—an ozone precursor—further decrease by 9%–26% compared to the ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) level in 2050. The level of emission reductions and the extent of transportation decarbonization are driven by vehicle cost and performance projections along with underlying assumptions on the time of charging. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ade505867bbd4f049c81f8043a5f20d6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2753-3751 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Energy |
| spelling | doaj-art-ade505867bbd4f049c81f8043a5f20d62025-01-08T08:55:42ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Energy2753-37512025-01-011404501810.1088/2753-3751/ad958bEvaluation of energy, carbon dioxide, and air emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States using EPA’s regional TIMES energy systems modelAndrew Zalesak0Noah Kittner1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3449-7823Daniel H Loughlin2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5102-3507Pervin Ozge Kaplan3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5597-8247ORISE Research Fellow (Former), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , Durham, NC 27711, United States of AmericaUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7400, United States of AmericaU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development , Durham, NC 27709, United States of AmericaU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development , Durham, NC 27709, United States of AmericaElectrifying on-road trucking is a strategy for decarbonizing the transportation sector. While battery-electric trucks have zero tailpipe emissions, the associated increase in electric sector grid emissions would offset a portion of on-road emission reductions. We utilize a techno-economic energy systems optimization model to assess the system-wide carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) and air pollutant emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States of America. Results suggest that by transitioning to 100% battery-electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MDVs and HDVs, together MHDVs), sales by 2050 would result in net CO _2 emission benefits should the electric sector decarbonize simultaneously. Combining a tax of $100 per ton of CO _2 , increasing at 5% per year, with electrification targets would yield a net 52% reduction in energy system CO _2 emissions in 2050. Across regions, the transportation sector nitrogen oxide (NO _X ) emissions—an ozone precursor—further decrease by 9%–26% compared to the ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) level in 2050. The level of emission reductions and the extent of transportation decarbonization are driven by vehicle cost and performance projections along with underlying assumptions on the time of charging.https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ad958benergy system analysiscarbon taxheavy-duty truckselectrificationdecarbonizing transportnetzero |
| spellingShingle | Andrew Zalesak Noah Kittner Daniel H Loughlin Pervin Ozge Kaplan Evaluation of energy, carbon dioxide, and air emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States using EPA’s regional TIMES energy systems model Environmental Research: Energy energy system analysis carbon tax heavy-duty trucks electrification decarbonizing transport netzero |
| title | Evaluation of energy, carbon dioxide, and air emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States using EPA’s regional TIMES energy systems model |
| title_full | Evaluation of energy, carbon dioxide, and air emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States using EPA’s regional TIMES energy systems model |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of energy, carbon dioxide, and air emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States using EPA’s regional TIMES energy systems model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of energy, carbon dioxide, and air emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States using EPA’s regional TIMES energy systems model |
| title_short | Evaluation of energy, carbon dioxide, and air emission implications of medium- and heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States using EPA’s regional TIMES energy systems model |
| title_sort | evaluation of energy carbon dioxide and air emission implications of medium and heavy duty truck electrification in the united states using epa s regional times energy systems model |
| topic | energy system analysis carbon tax heavy-duty trucks electrification decarbonizing transport netzero |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ad958b |
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