Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American Pattern

Abstract The Warm Arctic‐Cold North American (WACNA) pattern features opposing surface temperature anomalies, with centers over the Chukchi‐Bering Seas (CBS) and the North American Great Plains. The pattern is mainly driven by meridional heat transport and damped by the generation of available poten...

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Main Authors: Bin Yu, Hai Lin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-11-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112412
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author Bin Yu
Hai Lin
author_facet Bin Yu
Hai Lin
author_sort Bin Yu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The Warm Arctic‐Cold North American (WACNA) pattern features opposing surface temperature anomalies, with centers over the Chukchi‐Bering Seas (CBS) and the North American Great Plains. The pattern is mainly driven by meridional heat transport and damped by the generation of available potential energy through diabatic heating. The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM5, part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), reasonably reproduces this pattern and its formation mechanisms. Future projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 8.5 (SSP5‐8.5) suggest a significant weakening of WACNA with global warming. Notable changes in pattern intensity and spatial structure are anticipated, particularly a decrease in intensity over the CBS. WACNA changes are also found in 31 CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble simulations. These changes are attributed to Arctic amplification associated with global warming, which diminishes the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient and consequently reduces meridional heat transport, particularly over the CBS region.
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spelling doaj-art-ad9dc7c6656f448c86bfec26f86d71662025-08-20T03:16:26ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-11-015121n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112412Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American PatternBin Yu0Hai Lin1Climate Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada Toronto ON CanadaMeteorological Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada Dorval ON CanadaAbstract The Warm Arctic‐Cold North American (WACNA) pattern features opposing surface temperature anomalies, with centers over the Chukchi‐Bering Seas (CBS) and the North American Great Plains. The pattern is mainly driven by meridional heat transport and damped by the generation of available potential energy through diabatic heating. The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM5, part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), reasonably reproduces this pattern and its formation mechanisms. Future projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 8.5 (SSP5‐8.5) suggest a significant weakening of WACNA with global warming. Notable changes in pattern intensity and spatial structure are anticipated, particularly a decrease in intensity over the CBS. WACNA changes are also found in 31 CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble simulations. These changes are attributed to Arctic amplification associated with global warming, which diminishes the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient and consequently reduces meridional heat transport, particularly over the CBS region.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112412WACNAimpact of climate changemaintenance mechanism
spellingShingle Bin Yu
Hai Lin
Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American Pattern
Geophysical Research Letters
WACNA
impact of climate change
maintenance mechanism
title Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American Pattern
title_full Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American Pattern
title_fullStr Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American Pattern
title_full_unstemmed Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American Pattern
title_short Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American Pattern
title_sort projected changes of the warm arctic cold north american pattern
topic WACNA
impact of climate change
maintenance mechanism
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112412
work_keys_str_mv AT binyu projectedchangesofthewarmarcticcoldnorthamericanpattern
AT hailin projectedchangesofthewarmarcticcoldnorthamericanpattern