Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening.
<h4>Background</h4>Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammog...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248930&type=printable |
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| author | Javier Louro Marta Román Margarita Posso Ivonne Vázquez Francina Saladié Ana Rodriguez-Arana M Jesús Quintana Laia Domingo Marisa Baré Rafael Marcos-Gragera María Vernet-Tomas Maria Sala Xavier Castells BELE and IRIS Study Groups |
| author_facet | Javier Louro Marta Román Margarita Posso Ivonne Vázquez Francina Saladié Ana Rodriguez-Arana M Jesús Quintana Laia Domingo Marisa Baré Rafael Marcos-Gragera María Vernet-Tomas Maria Sala Xavier Castells BELE and IRIS Study Groups |
| author_sort | Javier Louro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening.<h4>Methods</h4>Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.<h4>Results</h4>During a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1.67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3.02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2.52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0.99 at 2 years to 1.02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58.7% to 64.7%, depending of the time horizon selected.<h4>Conclusions</h4>We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ad839c915eb848e28a655a23f73f2ea2 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-ad839c915eb848e28a655a23f73f2ea22025-08-20T02:00:51ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032021-01-01163e024893010.1371/journal.pone.0248930Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening.Javier LouroMarta RománMargarita PossoIvonne VázquezFrancina SaladiéAna Rodriguez-AranaM Jesús QuintanaLaia DomingoMarisa BaréRafael Marcos-GrageraMaría Vernet-TomasMaria SalaXavier CastellsBELE and IRIS Study Groups<h4>Background</h4>Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening.<h4>Methods</h4>Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.<h4>Results</h4>During a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1.67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3.02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2.52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0.99 at 2 years to 1.02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58.7% to 64.7%, depending of the time horizon selected.<h4>Conclusions</h4>We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248930&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Javier Louro Marta Román Margarita Posso Ivonne Vázquez Francina Saladié Ana Rodriguez-Arana M Jesús Quintana Laia Domingo Marisa Baré Rafael Marcos-Gragera María Vernet-Tomas Maria Sala Xavier Castells BELE and IRIS Study Groups Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening. PLoS ONE |
| title | Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening. |
| title_full | Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening. |
| title_fullStr | Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening. |
| title_short | Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening. |
| title_sort | developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248930&type=printable |
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