Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 Models
Abstract Sterodynamic sea level (SdynSL) is an essential component of sea level that climate models can simulate directly. Here, we disentangle the impacts of intermodel uncertainty, internal variability, and scenario uncertainty on SdynSL projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113691 |
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| author | Chenyang Jin Hailong Liu Pengfei Lin Kewei Lyu Yiwen Li |
| author_facet | Chenyang Jin Hailong Liu Pengfei Lin Kewei Lyu Yiwen Li |
| author_sort | Chenyang Jin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Sterodynamic sea level (SdynSL) is an essential component of sea level that climate models can simulate directly. Here, we disentangle the impacts of intermodel uncertainty, internal variability, and scenario uncertainty on SdynSL projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Regarding the global mean, intermodel (scenario) uncertainty dominates before (after) ∼2070, while internal variability is negligible. At the regional scale, intermodel uncertainty is the largest contributor, whereas internal variability plays a secondary role mainly in the tropical Indo‐Pacific Ocean. Scenario uncertainty becomes significant in certain regions toward the end of this century. The anthropogenic signal of global mean SdynSL emerges at the beginning of this century relative to 1971–2000. In contrast, the anthropogenic signals of regional SdynSL are likely to emerge over 70% of the global ocean by the 2090s, which could be advanced to the 2040s if model differences can be totally eliminated. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ad6e4cf0a32f4f19b9e897358bf3ac06 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-ad6e4cf0a32f4f19b9e897358bf3ac062025-08-20T02:56:35ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-04-01528n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113691Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 ModelsChenyang Jin0Hailong Liu1Pengfei Lin2Kewei Lyu3Yiwen Li4Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center Shanghai Meteorological Service Shanghai ChinaLaoshan Laboratory Qingdao ChinaInstitute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth Sciences Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaSchool of Ocean Sciences China University of Geosciences Beijing ChinaAbstract Sterodynamic sea level (SdynSL) is an essential component of sea level that climate models can simulate directly. Here, we disentangle the impacts of intermodel uncertainty, internal variability, and scenario uncertainty on SdynSL projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Regarding the global mean, intermodel (scenario) uncertainty dominates before (after) ∼2070, while internal variability is negligible. At the regional scale, intermodel uncertainty is the largest contributor, whereas internal variability plays a secondary role mainly in the tropical Indo‐Pacific Ocean. Scenario uncertainty becomes significant in certain regions toward the end of this century. The anthropogenic signal of global mean SdynSL emerges at the beginning of this century relative to 1971–2000. In contrast, the anthropogenic signals of regional SdynSL are likely to emerge over 70% of the global ocean by the 2090s, which could be advanced to the 2040s if model differences can be totally eliminated.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113691sterodynamic sea levelprojection uncertaintyclimate models |
| spellingShingle | Chenyang Jin Hailong Liu Pengfei Lin Kewei Lyu Yiwen Li Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 Models Geophysical Research Letters sterodynamic sea level projection uncertainty climate models |
| title | Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 Models |
| title_full | Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 Models |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 Models |
| title_short | Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 Models |
| title_sort | uncertainties in the projection of sterodynamic sea level in cmip6 models |
| topic | sterodynamic sea level projection uncertainty climate models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113691 |
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