Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24
Abstract The propagation of geoeffective fast halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from solar cycle 24 has been investigated using the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), ENLIL, Drag‐Based Model (DBM) and Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) models. For an objective compariso...
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Wiley
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003497 |
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| author | E. Yordanova M. Temmer M. Dumbović C. Scolini E. Paouris A. L. E. Werner A. P. Dimmock L. Sorriso‐Valvo |
| author_facet | E. Yordanova M. Temmer M. Dumbović C. Scolini E. Paouris A. L. E. Werner A. P. Dimmock L. Sorriso‐Valvo |
| author_sort | E. Yordanova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The propagation of geoeffective fast halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from solar cycle 24 has been investigated using the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), ENLIL, Drag‐Based Model (DBM) and Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) models. For an objective comparison, a unified set of a small sample of CME events with similar characteristics has been selected. The same CME kinematic parameters have been used as input in the propagation models to compare their predicted arrival times and the speed of the interplanetary (IP) shocks associated with the CMEs. The performance assessment has been based on the application of an identical set of metrics. First, the modeling of the events has been done with default input concerning the background solar wind, as would be used in operations. The obtained CME arrival forecast deviates from the observations at L1, with a general underestimation of the arrival time and overestimation of the impact speed (mean absolute error [MAE]: 9.8 ± 1.8–14.6 ± 2.3 hr and 178 ± 22–376 ± 54 km/s). To address this discrepancy, we refine the models by simple changes of the density ratio (dcld) between the CME and IP space in the numerical, and the IP drag (γ) in the analytical models. This approach resulted in a reduced MAE in the forecast for the arrival time of 8.6 ± 2.2–13.5 ± 2.2 hr and the impact speed of 51 ± 6–243 ± 45 km/s. In addition, we performed multi‐CME runs to simulate potential interactions. This leads, to even larger uncertainties in the forecast. Based on this study we suggest simple adjustments in the operational settings for improving the forecast of fast halo CMEs. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ac96660fd1f845a98ed064df5ce3df42 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-ac96660fd1f845a98ed064df5ce3df422025-01-14T16:26:56ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902024-01-01221n/an/a10.1029/2023SW003497Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24E. Yordanova0M. Temmer1M. Dumbović2C. Scolini3E. Paouris4A. L. E. Werner5A. P. Dimmock6L. Sorriso‐Valvo7Swedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala SwedenInstitute of Physics University of Graz Graz AustriaHvar Observatory Faculty of Geodesy University of Zagreb Zagreb CroatiaRoyal Observatory of Belgium Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Physics and Astronomy George Mason University Fairfax VA USASwedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala SwedenSwedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala SwedenSwedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala SwedenAbstract The propagation of geoeffective fast halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from solar cycle 24 has been investigated using the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), ENLIL, Drag‐Based Model (DBM) and Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) models. For an objective comparison, a unified set of a small sample of CME events with similar characteristics has been selected. The same CME kinematic parameters have been used as input in the propagation models to compare their predicted arrival times and the speed of the interplanetary (IP) shocks associated with the CMEs. The performance assessment has been based on the application of an identical set of metrics. First, the modeling of the events has been done with default input concerning the background solar wind, as would be used in operations. The obtained CME arrival forecast deviates from the observations at L1, with a general underestimation of the arrival time and overestimation of the impact speed (mean absolute error [MAE]: 9.8 ± 1.8–14.6 ± 2.3 hr and 178 ± 22–376 ± 54 km/s). To address this discrepancy, we refine the models by simple changes of the density ratio (dcld) between the CME and IP space in the numerical, and the IP drag (γ) in the analytical models. This approach resulted in a reduced MAE in the forecast for the arrival time of 8.6 ± 2.2–13.5 ± 2.2 hr and the impact speed of 51 ± 6–243 ± 45 km/s. In addition, we performed multi‐CME runs to simulate potential interactions. This leads, to even larger uncertainties in the forecast. Based on this study we suggest simple adjustments in the operational settings for improving the forecast of fast halo CMEs.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003497halo CMEbackground solar windCME arrival timeCME impact speedspace weather forecast |
| spellingShingle | E. Yordanova M. Temmer M. Dumbović C. Scolini E. Paouris A. L. E. Werner A. P. Dimmock L. Sorriso‐Valvo Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24 Space Weather halo CME background solar wind CME arrival time CME impact speed space weather forecast |
| title | Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24 |
| title_full | Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24 |
| title_fullStr | Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24 |
| title_short | Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24 |
| title_sort | refined modeling of geoeffective fast halo cmes during solar cycle 24 |
| topic | halo CME background solar wind CME arrival time CME impact speed space weather forecast |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003497 |
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