A KAN-based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical space

Accurate yet interpretable prediction of Global Warming Potential (GWP) is essential for the sustainable design of novel molecules, chemical processes and materials. This capability is valuable in the early-stage screening of compounds with potential relevance to carbon management and emerging CCUS...

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Main Authors: Jaewook Lee, Xinyang Sun, Ethan Errington, Calum Drysdale, Miao Guo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-09-01
Series:Carbon Capture Science & Technology
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772656825001174
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author Jaewook Lee
Xinyang Sun
Ethan Errington
Calum Drysdale
Miao Guo
author_facet Jaewook Lee
Xinyang Sun
Ethan Errington
Calum Drysdale
Miao Guo
author_sort Jaewook Lee
collection DOAJ
description Accurate yet interpretable prediction of Global Warming Potential (GWP) is essential for the sustainable design of novel molecules, chemical processes and materials. This capability is valuable in the early-stage screening of compounds with potential relevance to carbon management and emerging CCUS applications. However, conventional models often face a trade-off between predictive accuracy and interpretability. In this study, we propose an AI-based GWP prediction framework that integrates both molecular and process-level features to improve accuracy while employing white-box modeling techniques to enhance interpretability. First, by incorporating molecular descriptors (MACCS keys, Mordred descriptors) and process-level information (process title, description, location), the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model achieved an R² of 86 % on the test data, representing a 25 % improvement over the most comparable benchmark reported in prior studies. XAI analysis further highlights the crucial role of process-related features, particularly process title embeddings, in enhancing model predictions. Second, to address the need for model transparency, we employed a Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN) model to develop a symbolic, white-box GWP prediction model. While achieving a lower R² of 64 %, this model provides explicit mathematical representations of GWP relationships, enabling interpretable decision-making in sustainable chemical and process design. Our findings demonstrate that integrating molecular and process-level features improves both predictive accuracy and interpretability in GWP modelling. The resulting framework can support early-stage environmental assessment of novel compounds, offering a useful tool to inform the sustainable design of chemicals, including those with potential applications in CCUS.
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spelling doaj-art-ac1b87ef593f41e1aaa383e5415649322025-08-20T04:00:55ZengElsevierCarbon Capture Science & Technology2772-65682025-09-011610047810.1016/j.ccst.2025.100478A KAN-based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical spaceJaewook Lee0Xinyang Sun1Ethan Errington2Calum Drysdale3Miao Guo4Department of Engineering, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, United KingdomDepartment of Engineering, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, United KingdomDepartment of Engineering, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, United KingdomDepartment of Engineering, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, United KingdomCorresponding author.; Department of Engineering, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, United KingdomAccurate yet interpretable prediction of Global Warming Potential (GWP) is essential for the sustainable design of novel molecules, chemical processes and materials. This capability is valuable in the early-stage screening of compounds with potential relevance to carbon management and emerging CCUS applications. However, conventional models often face a trade-off between predictive accuracy and interpretability. In this study, we propose an AI-based GWP prediction framework that integrates both molecular and process-level features to improve accuracy while employing white-box modeling techniques to enhance interpretability. First, by incorporating molecular descriptors (MACCS keys, Mordred descriptors) and process-level information (process title, description, location), the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model achieved an R² of 86 % on the test data, representing a 25 % improvement over the most comparable benchmark reported in prior studies. XAI analysis further highlights the crucial role of process-related features, particularly process title embeddings, in enhancing model predictions. Second, to address the need for model transparency, we employed a Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN) model to develop a symbolic, white-box GWP prediction model. While achieving a lower R² of 64 %, this model provides explicit mathematical representations of GWP relationships, enabling interpretable decision-making in sustainable chemical and process design. Our findings demonstrate that integrating molecular and process-level features improves both predictive accuracy and interpretability in GWP modelling. The resulting framework can support early-stage environmental assessment of novel compounds, offering a useful tool to inform the sustainable design of chemicals, including those with potential applications in CCUS.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772656825001174Life cycle assessment (LCA)Global warming potential (GWP)Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN)
spellingShingle Jaewook Lee
Xinyang Sun
Ethan Errington
Calum Drysdale
Miao Guo
A KAN-based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical space
Carbon Capture Science & Technology
Life cycle assessment (LCA)
Global warming potential (GWP)
Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)
Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN)
title A KAN-based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical space
title_full A KAN-based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical space
title_fullStr A KAN-based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical space
title_full_unstemmed A KAN-based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical space
title_short A KAN-based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical space
title_sort kan based interpretable framework for prediction of global warming potential across chemical space
topic Life cycle assessment (LCA)
Global warming potential (GWP)
Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)
Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN)
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772656825001174
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