Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe
Abstract Background In 2023, an unprecedentedly high number of locally acquired cases of dengue virus occurred in Europe, including the first large outbreak in Rome (Italy). Globally, 2023 was warmer than any previous year on record since 1850, with each month from June to December being warmer than...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Communications Medicine |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00983-8 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849342541679296512 |
|---|---|
| author | Chiara Virgillito Eleonora Longo Carlo Maria De Marco Chiara Gentile Martina Micocci Christos Topalidis Luana Violante Federico Filipponi Piero Poletti Stefano Merler Alessandra della Torre Beniamino Caputo Mattia Manica |
| author_facet | Chiara Virgillito Eleonora Longo Carlo Maria De Marco Chiara Gentile Martina Micocci Christos Topalidis Luana Violante Federico Filipponi Piero Poletti Stefano Merler Alessandra della Torre Beniamino Caputo Mattia Manica |
| author_sort | Chiara Virgillito |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background In 2023, an unprecedentedly high number of locally acquired cases of dengue virus occurred in Europe, including the first large outbreak in Rome (Italy). Globally, 2023 was warmer than any previous year on record since 1850, with each month from June to December being warmer than the corresponding month in previous years. Methods We conducted an extensive analysis of entomological data in Rome to investigate how the unprecedentedly high temperatures seen in 2023 affected the abundance and seasonal dynamics of the local vector Aedes albopictus population and the risk of autochthonous transmission of both dengue and chikungunya viruses. We applied a mathematical dynamic temperature-based model to analyse adult mosquito collections in 2023 compared to those available for 2012 and assess the consequent changes in the risk of arboviral transmission. Simulations of potential local transmission triggered by disease importation were used to evaluate the effectiveness of human and entomological surveillance for monitoring transmission risks, providing insights for future action plans Results Results highlight a higher abundance and longer active season of Ae. albopictus as well as a higher risk of local arbovirus transmission in 2023. Conclusions Our findings raise concern in light of the predictions for more frequent extremely warm years in Europe in the near future. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ac0d3ada692f401798439fcd103c4fe5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2730-664X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-ac0d3ada692f401798439fcd103c4fe52025-08-20T03:43:21ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Medicine2730-664X2025-07-015111010.1038/s43856-025-00983-8Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern EuropeChiara Virgillito0Eleonora Longo1Carlo Maria De Marco2Chiara Gentile3Martina Micocci4Christos Topalidis5Luana Violante6Federico Filipponi7Piero Poletti8Stefano Merler9Alessandra della Torre10Beniamino Caputo11Mattia Manica12Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of RomeDepartment of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of RomeDepartment of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of RomeDepartment of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of RomeDepartment of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of RomeDepartment of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of RomeNational PhD Programme in One Health approaches to infectious diseases and life science research, University of PaviaNational Research Council—Institute for Environmental Geology and Geoengineering (CNR-IGAG)Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno KesslerCenter for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno KesslerDepartment of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of RomeDepartment of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of RomeCenter for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno KesslerAbstract Background In 2023, an unprecedentedly high number of locally acquired cases of dengue virus occurred in Europe, including the first large outbreak in Rome (Italy). Globally, 2023 was warmer than any previous year on record since 1850, with each month from June to December being warmer than the corresponding month in previous years. Methods We conducted an extensive analysis of entomological data in Rome to investigate how the unprecedentedly high temperatures seen in 2023 affected the abundance and seasonal dynamics of the local vector Aedes albopictus population and the risk of autochthonous transmission of both dengue and chikungunya viruses. We applied a mathematical dynamic temperature-based model to analyse adult mosquito collections in 2023 compared to those available for 2012 and assess the consequent changes in the risk of arboviral transmission. Simulations of potential local transmission triggered by disease importation were used to evaluate the effectiveness of human and entomological surveillance for monitoring transmission risks, providing insights for future action plans Results Results highlight a higher abundance and longer active season of Ae. albopictus as well as a higher risk of local arbovirus transmission in 2023. Conclusions Our findings raise concern in light of the predictions for more frequent extremely warm years in Europe in the near future.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00983-8 |
| spellingShingle | Chiara Virgillito Eleonora Longo Carlo Maria De Marco Chiara Gentile Martina Micocci Christos Topalidis Luana Violante Federico Filipponi Piero Poletti Stefano Merler Alessandra della Torre Beniamino Caputo Mattia Manica Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe Communications Medicine |
| title | Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe |
| title_full | Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe |
| title_fullStr | Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe |
| title_short | Cross-sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record-breaking heat in Southern Europe |
| title_sort | cross sectional entomological data reveals an increased risk of arboviral transmission in a year of record breaking heat in southern europe |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00983-8 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chiaravirgillito crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT eleonoralongo crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT carlomariademarco crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT chiaragentile crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT martinamicocci crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT christostopalidis crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT luanaviolante crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT federicofilipponi crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT pieropoletti crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT stefanomerler crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT alessandradellatorre crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT beniaminocaputo crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope AT mattiamanica crosssectionalentomologicaldatarevealsanincreasedriskofarboviraltransmissioninayearofrecordbreakingheatinsoutherneurope |