Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for Bangladesh using updated source models
Bangladesh, located near the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma tectonic plate boundaries, is highly susceptible to seismic hazards due to its complex tectonic setting. Despite identifying several tectonic features, their detailed characterization (e.g. slip type, slip rate, movement direction) remains unc...
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2025.2454537 |
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| author | Anika Samm-A A. S. M. Maksud Kamal Md. Shakhawat Hossain Md. Zillur Rahman |
| author_facet | Anika Samm-A A. S. M. Maksud Kamal Md. Shakhawat Hossain Md. Zillur Rahman |
| author_sort | Anika Samm-A |
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| description | Bangladesh, located near the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma tectonic plate boundaries, is highly susceptible to seismic hazards due to its complex tectonic setting. Despite identifying several tectonic features, their detailed characterization (e.g. slip type, slip rate, movement direction) remains unclear, leading to a lack of well-defined seismic source models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) specific to the region to assess seismic hazards. This study addresses these limitations by updating areal source models (nine areal sources), estimating seismicity parameters such as mean seismicity rates, Gutenberg–Richter b-values, and maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax), and utilizing comprehensive earthquake catalogs of historical and instrumental records. In the absence of region-specific GMPEs, a combination of equations (four different combinations) from similar tectonic settings was employed. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed for bedrock condition using R-CRISIS, producing maps of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) for 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. Results reveal significant spatial variability, with higher seismic hazards along the eastern border, where maximum PGA values are 0.27 and 0.68 g for 10% and 2% exceedance probabilities, respectively. These findings provide critical insights for seismic risk assessment and inform resilience-building efforts in Bangladesh. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-abfac9a102d7431585c7b37132fff750 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| spelling | doaj-art-abfac9a102d7431585c7b37132fff7502025-01-28T17:37:10ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132025-12-0116110.1080/19475705.2025.2454537Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for Bangladesh using updated source modelsAnika Samm-A0A. S. M. Maksud Kamal1Md. Shakhawat Hossain2Md. Zillur Rahman3Department of Disaster Science and Climate Resilience, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, BangladeshDepartment of Disaster Science and Climate Resilience, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, BangladeshDepartment of Disaster Science and Climate Resilience, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, BangladeshDepartment of Disaster Science and Climate Resilience, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, BangladeshBangladesh, located near the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma tectonic plate boundaries, is highly susceptible to seismic hazards due to its complex tectonic setting. Despite identifying several tectonic features, their detailed characterization (e.g. slip type, slip rate, movement direction) remains unclear, leading to a lack of well-defined seismic source models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) specific to the region to assess seismic hazards. This study addresses these limitations by updating areal source models (nine areal sources), estimating seismicity parameters such as mean seismicity rates, Gutenberg–Richter b-values, and maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax), and utilizing comprehensive earthquake catalogs of historical and instrumental records. In the absence of region-specific GMPEs, a combination of equations (four different combinations) from similar tectonic settings was employed. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed for bedrock condition using R-CRISIS, producing maps of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) for 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. Results reveal significant spatial variability, with higher seismic hazards along the eastern border, where maximum PGA values are 0.27 and 0.68 g for 10% and 2% exceedance probabilities, respectively. These findings provide critical insights for seismic risk assessment and inform resilience-building efforts in Bangladesh.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2025.2454537Peak ground accelerationBangladeshLogic treeProbabilistic seismic hazard assessmentSpectral accelerationSource model |
| spellingShingle | Anika Samm-A A. S. M. Maksud Kamal Md. Shakhawat Hossain Md. Zillur Rahman Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for Bangladesh using updated source models Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk Peak ground acceleration Bangladesh Logic tree Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Spectral acceleration Source model |
| title | Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for Bangladesh using updated source models |
| title_full | Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for Bangladesh using updated source models |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for Bangladesh using updated source models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for Bangladesh using updated source models |
| title_short | Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for Bangladesh using updated source models |
| title_sort | probabilistic seismic hazard mapping for bangladesh using updated source models |
| topic | Peak ground acceleration Bangladesh Logic tree Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Spectral acceleration Source model |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2025.2454537 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT anikasamma probabilisticseismichazardmappingforbangladeshusingupdatedsourcemodels AT asmmaksudkamal probabilisticseismichazardmappingforbangladeshusingupdatedsourcemodels AT mdshakhawathossain probabilisticseismichazardmappingforbangladeshusingupdatedsourcemodels AT mdzillurrahman probabilisticseismichazardmappingforbangladeshusingupdatedsourcemodels |