Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model

Purpose: This paper aims to enrich understanding of the obesity transition among socioeconomic status (SES) strata by gender and age in cities of Colombia and Mexico. The study uses harmonized data from the Salud Urbana en América Latina (SALURBAL) study. Methods: A population-level system dynamics...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Jose D. Meisel, Valentina Esguerra, Carolina Pérez Ferrer, Ivana Stankov, Felipe Montes, Natalia Tumas, Usama Bilal, Juan A. Valdivia, Ana V. Diez Roux, Olga L. Sarmiento
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2024-11-01
Series:Heliyon
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240584402415952X
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850065568429768704
author Jose D. Meisel
Valentina Esguerra
Carolina Pérez Ferrer
Ivana Stankov
Felipe Montes
Natalia Tumas
Usama Bilal
Juan A. Valdivia
Ana V. Diez Roux
Olga L. Sarmiento
author_facet Jose D. Meisel
Valentina Esguerra
Carolina Pérez Ferrer
Ivana Stankov
Felipe Montes
Natalia Tumas
Usama Bilal
Juan A. Valdivia
Ana V. Diez Roux
Olga L. Sarmiento
author_sort Jose D. Meisel
collection DOAJ
description Purpose: This paper aims to enrich understanding of the obesity transition among socioeconomic status (SES) strata by gender and age in cities of Colombia and Mexico. The study uses harmonized data from the Salud Urbana en América Latina (SALURBAL) study. Methods: A population-level system dynamics model was developed using 2010 and 2015 data from Colombia and 2012 and 2016 data from Mexico (national health surveys). The model simulates the prevalence of different BMI categories (i.e., not overweight, overweight, obese) stratified by gender, age, and SES, in the SALURBAL cities (aggregated to the country level) of Colombia and Mexico from 2010 to 2050. Sample sizes for Colombia in 2010 and Mexico in 2012 were 7420 and 5785 children (<5 years), 21601 and 14413 children and adolescents (5–17 years), and 46597 and 20464 adults (18–64 years), respectively. Sample sizes for Colombia in 2015 and Mexico in 2016 were 4450 and 907 children, 12468 and 2350 children and adolescents, and 90430 and 3413 adults, respectively. Results: For men in Colombia and Mexico, the burden of obesity is projected to increase among lower SES adults over time. Colombian women show similar patterns observed in men but the burden of obesity was already greater in the lower SES groups as early as 2012. In Mexican women, the burden of obesity in 2012 is higher in the lower SES population; however, the prevalence of obesity is projected to increase at a faster rate in the higher SES population. Patterns for children aged 0–14 years differed by gender and country. Conclusions: The model suggests that the prevalence of obesity among SES strata by age and gender in SALURBAL cities of Colombia and Mexico are likely to change over time, and predicts their possible evolution through the different stages of the obesity transition.
format Article
id doaj-art-abf371e4f3c74dfeaf5314c40aa8ba67
institution DOAJ
issn 2405-8440
language English
publishDate 2024-11-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series Heliyon
spelling doaj-art-abf371e4f3c74dfeaf5314c40aa8ba672025-08-20T02:48:58ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402024-11-011022e3992110.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39921Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics modelJose D. Meisel0Valentina Esguerra1Carolina Pérez Ferrer2Ivana Stankov3Felipe Montes4Natalia Tumas5Usama Bilal6Juan A. Valdivia7Ana V. Diez Roux8Olga L. Sarmiento9Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Ibagué, Carrera 22 Calle 67, 730001, Ibagué, Colombia; Social and Health Complexity Center, Bogotá, Colombia; Corresponding author. Carrera 22 Calle 67, Ibagué, Colombia.Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Ibagué, Carrera 22 Calle 67, 730001, Ibagué, ColombiaCONACyT-Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cerrada de Fray Pedro de Gante 50, 14080, Mexico City, MexicoUrban Health Collaborative, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, 3600 Market St, 7th floor, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA; UniSA Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, AustraliaDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Social and Health Complexity Center, Universidad de los Andes, Carrera 1 Este No. 19A-40, Bogotá, ColombiaCentro de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Cultura y Sociedad(CIECS), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas(CONICET) y Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (UNC), Córdoba, Argentina; Johns Hopkins University - Universitat Pompeu Fabra Public PolicyCenter (JHU-UPF PPC), UPF- Barcelona School of Management (UPF-BSM),Barcelona, SpainUrban Health Collaborative, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, 3600 Market St, 7th floor, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, 3215 Market St, 5th floor, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USADepartamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras, 3425, Ñuñoa Santiago, Chile; Centro para el Desarrollo de la Nanociencia y la Nanotecnología, CEDENNA, Santiago, ChileUrban Health Collaborative, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, 3600 Market St, 7th floor, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, 3215 Market St, 5th floor, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USADepartment of Public Health, School of Medicine, Universidad de los Andes, Carrera 1 Este No. 19A-40, Bogotá, ColombiaPurpose: This paper aims to enrich understanding of the obesity transition among socioeconomic status (SES) strata by gender and age in cities of Colombia and Mexico. The study uses harmonized data from the Salud Urbana en América Latina (SALURBAL) study. Methods: A population-level system dynamics model was developed using 2010 and 2015 data from Colombia and 2012 and 2016 data from Mexico (national health surveys). The model simulates the prevalence of different BMI categories (i.e., not overweight, overweight, obese) stratified by gender, age, and SES, in the SALURBAL cities (aggregated to the country level) of Colombia and Mexico from 2010 to 2050. Sample sizes for Colombia in 2010 and Mexico in 2012 were 7420 and 5785 children (<5 years), 21601 and 14413 children and adolescents (5–17 years), and 46597 and 20464 adults (18–64 years), respectively. Sample sizes for Colombia in 2015 and Mexico in 2016 were 4450 and 907 children, 12468 and 2350 children and adolescents, and 90430 and 3413 adults, respectively. Results: For men in Colombia and Mexico, the burden of obesity is projected to increase among lower SES adults over time. Colombian women show similar patterns observed in men but the burden of obesity was already greater in the lower SES groups as early as 2012. In Mexican women, the burden of obesity in 2012 is higher in the lower SES population; however, the prevalence of obesity is projected to increase at a faster rate in the higher SES population. Patterns for children aged 0–14 years differed by gender and country. Conclusions: The model suggests that the prevalence of obesity among SES strata by age and gender in SALURBAL cities of Colombia and Mexico are likely to change over time, and predicts their possible evolution through the different stages of the obesity transition.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240584402415952XComplex systemsEpidemiologyObesity transitionPublic healthSystem dynamics modelSystem science
spellingShingle Jose D. Meisel
Valentina Esguerra
Carolina Pérez Ferrer
Ivana Stankov
Felipe Montes
Natalia Tumas
Usama Bilal
Juan A. Valdivia
Ana V. Diez Roux
Olga L. Sarmiento
Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model
Heliyon
Complex systems
Epidemiology
Obesity transition
Public health
System dynamics model
System science
title Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model
title_full Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model
title_fullStr Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model
title_full_unstemmed Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model
title_short Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model
title_sort understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in colombian and mexican cities using a system dynamics model
topic Complex systems
Epidemiology
Obesity transition
Public health
System dynamics model
System science
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240584402415952X
work_keys_str_mv AT josedmeisel understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT valentinaesguerra understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT carolinaperezferrer understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT ivanastankov understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT felipemontes understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT nataliatumas understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT usamabilal understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT juanavaldivia understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT anavdiezroux understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel
AT olgalsarmiento understandingtheobesitydynamicsbysocioeconomicstatusincolombianandmexicancitiesusingasystemdynamicsmodel