Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature, drought, and CHTDs in climate transition zones
Study region: The Yellow River Basin (YRB) Study focus: Based on the dry and wet characteristics of the basin, various climate zones are delineated. Subsequently, predictions from the coupled four climate models (CanESM5, CNRM-CM6–1, CNRM-ESM2–1, and IPSL-CM6A-LR) and the statistical downscaling mod...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825001363 |
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| author | Hui Su Chunxiao Wu Shuai Zhou Xiangxu Song Jiaqi Tian Xiaoqing Han Xiao Zhang Ting Zhang |
| author_facet | Hui Su Chunxiao Wu Shuai Zhou Xiangxu Song Jiaqi Tian Xiaoqing Han Xiao Zhang Ting Zhang |
| author_sort | Hui Su |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The Yellow River Basin (YRB) Study focus: Based on the dry and wet characteristics of the basin, various climate zones are delineated. Subsequently, predictions from the coupled four climate models (CanESM5, CNRM-CM6–1, CNRM-ESM2–1, and IPSL-CM6A-LR) and the statistical downscaling model are used to construct standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices and standardized temperature indices, which reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought and high temperatures in the watershed under different future scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Finally, the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of high temperatures, droughts, and CHTDs (compound high temperature and drought events), where high temperature and drought events occur simultaneously, are analyzed. New hydrological insights for the regions: By analyzing the evolution patterns of drought in historical and future periods, the results indicate that severe drought in arid regions will alleviate during the period of July to August in the future. Compared to historical periods, the arid region will experience extreme drought, and the southeastern part of the semi humid region will experience varying degrees of drought. Further analysis of the evolution of high temperature events indicates that by 2060, the timing of high temperature events in the basin is expected to gradually shift to late spring. The high temperature events from May to July will cover most of the central and eastern parts of the basin and continue to develop into heatwave events (defined as three consecutive days of high temperature). The spatial variation pattern of CHTDs is relatively similar in three scenarios. From May to July, the CHTDs is expected to become more severe in all climate regions except for arid region, especially in the southeastern semi-humid region, where the affected areas will significantly expand and affect some irrigation districts. In the SSP126 scenario of the future period, the maximum coverage of CHTDs is the largest (19.06 %), and the occurrence month is similar to history. However, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the maximum coverage of CHTDs is also advanced to July, but the coverage rate (SSP245 is 17.82 %, SSP585 is 17.80 %) is smaller compared to the SSP126 scenario. From a temporal perspective, as the scenario worsens, the occurrence of CHTDs gradually increases, but mainly concentrated in the near term (2020–2040), and gradually decreases in the medium to long term, especially in the SSP585 scenario, where the occurrence of CHTDs in the long term (2071–2100) is 0. This study provides important reference value for the spatiotemporal evolution of composite events in climate transition zones under different scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ab4c402f469e41f78bbc66d97264c474 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-ab4c402f469e41f78bbc66d97264c4742025-08-20T02:25:28ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-06-015910231210.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102312Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature, drought, and CHTDs in climate transition zonesHui Su0Chunxiao Wu1Shuai Zhou2Xiangxu Song3Jiaqi Tian4Xiaoqing Han5Xiao Zhang6Ting Zhang7College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei 056038, China; Hebei Key Laboratory of Smart Water Conservancy, Handan , Hebei 056038, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei 056038, China; Hebei Key Laboratory of Smart Water Conservancy, Handan , Hebei 056038, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei 056038, China; Hebei Key Laboratory of Smart Water Conservancy, Handan , Hebei 056038, China; Correspondence to: Hebei University of Engineering, Hebei Key Laboratory of Smart Water Conservancy, Handan, Hebei 056038, China.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei 056038, China; Hebei Key Laboratory of Smart Water Conservancy, Handan , Hebei 056038, ChinaCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei 056038, China; Hebei Key Laboratory of Smart Water Conservancy, Handan , Hebei 056038, ChinaJizhong Energy Fengfeng Group Company Limited, Handan, Hebei 056201, ChinaChina University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, ChinaChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaStudy region: The Yellow River Basin (YRB) Study focus: Based on the dry and wet characteristics of the basin, various climate zones are delineated. Subsequently, predictions from the coupled four climate models (CanESM5, CNRM-CM6–1, CNRM-ESM2–1, and IPSL-CM6A-LR) and the statistical downscaling model are used to construct standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices and standardized temperature indices, which reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought and high temperatures in the watershed under different future scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Finally, the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of high temperatures, droughts, and CHTDs (compound high temperature and drought events), where high temperature and drought events occur simultaneously, are analyzed. New hydrological insights for the regions: By analyzing the evolution patterns of drought in historical and future periods, the results indicate that severe drought in arid regions will alleviate during the period of July to August in the future. Compared to historical periods, the arid region will experience extreme drought, and the southeastern part of the semi humid region will experience varying degrees of drought. Further analysis of the evolution of high temperature events indicates that by 2060, the timing of high temperature events in the basin is expected to gradually shift to late spring. The high temperature events from May to July will cover most of the central and eastern parts of the basin and continue to develop into heatwave events (defined as three consecutive days of high temperature). The spatial variation pattern of CHTDs is relatively similar in three scenarios. From May to July, the CHTDs is expected to become more severe in all climate regions except for arid region, especially in the southeastern semi-humid region, where the affected areas will significantly expand and affect some irrigation districts. In the SSP126 scenario of the future period, the maximum coverage of CHTDs is the largest (19.06 %), and the occurrence month is similar to history. However, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the maximum coverage of CHTDs is also advanced to July, but the coverage rate (SSP245 is 17.82 %, SSP585 is 17.80 %) is smaller compared to the SSP126 scenario. From a temporal perspective, as the scenario worsens, the occurrence of CHTDs gradually increases, but mainly concentrated in the near term (2020–2040), and gradually decreases in the medium to long term, especially in the SSP585 scenario, where the occurrence of CHTDs in the long term (2071–2100) is 0. This study provides important reference value for the spatiotemporal evolution of composite events in climate transition zones under different scenarios.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825001363DroughtCompound high temperature and drought eventsSPEISTIYellow River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Hui Su Chunxiao Wu Shuai Zhou Xiangxu Song Jiaqi Tian Xiaoqing Han Xiao Zhang Ting Zhang Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature, drought, and CHTDs in climate transition zones Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Drought Compound high temperature and drought events SPEI STI Yellow River Basin |
| title | Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature, drought, and CHTDs in climate transition zones |
| title_full | Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature, drought, and CHTDs in climate transition zones |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature, drought, and CHTDs in climate transition zones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature, drought, and CHTDs in climate transition zones |
| title_short | Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature, drought, and CHTDs in climate transition zones |
| title_sort | analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the synergistic relationship among high temperature drought and chtds in climate transition zones |
| topic | Drought Compound high temperature and drought events SPEI STI Yellow River Basin |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825001363 |
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