A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios
Energy transitions are pivotal for sustainability, yet their complexity and uncertainty pose significant challenges for effective planning and implementation. Participatory modelling has emerged as a promising approach to support these transitions, as it involves incorporating stakeholders' per...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Applied Energy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792425000095 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832576428399394816 |
|---|---|
| author | Jair K.E.K. Campfens Mert Duygan Claudia R. Binder |
| author_facet | Jair K.E.K. Campfens Mert Duygan Claudia R. Binder |
| author_sort | Jair K.E.K. Campfens |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Energy transitions are pivotal for sustainability, yet their complexity and uncertainty pose significant challenges for effective planning and implementation. Participatory modelling has emerged as a promising approach to support these transitions, as it involves incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models and policy designs, which helps integrate their mental models and preferences into simulations. This paper reviews the current state of participatory modelling in transition research for energy scenarios. Drawing on a comprehensive literature review and semi-structured interviews, we extract findings by evaluating participatory modelling techniques against criteria such as normative dimensions, non-linearity, actors and agency, uncertainty and emergence. Findings reveal that techniques like Cross-Impact Balance analysis and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping excel in incorporating normative aspects and capturing diverse actor perspectives, yet they face challenges in addressing non-linearity and uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Agent-Based Models are strong in managing uncertainty and modelling emergent behaviours but show limitations in normative aspects. Our findings provide a foundation for scholars and practitioners in the field of socio-technical energy transitions to select participatory modelling techniques best suited to their specific research contexts. This review also highlights gaps between theoretical potential and practical application of participatory modelling techniques. Bridging these gaps requires methodological advancement and a more rigorous application in empirical studies. To this end, future directions for blending techniques are discussed to better address the complexities of energy transitions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ab460a5528d244cbad18be3640b016b2 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-7924 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Applied Energy |
| spelling | doaj-art-ab460a5528d244cbad18be3640b016b22025-01-31T05:12:33ZengElsevierAdvances in Applied Energy2666-79242025-03-0117100215A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenariosJair K.E.K. Campfens0Mert Duygan1Claudia R. Binder2Laboratory for Human Environment Relations in Urban Systems (HERUS), Institute of Environmental Engineering (IIE), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Corresponding author.Laboratory for Human Environment Relations in Urban Systems (HERUS), Institute of Environmental Engineering (IIE), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, SwitzerlandLaboratory for Human Environment Relations in Urban Systems (HERUS), Institute of Environmental Engineering (IIE), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, SwitzerlandEnergy transitions are pivotal for sustainability, yet their complexity and uncertainty pose significant challenges for effective planning and implementation. Participatory modelling has emerged as a promising approach to support these transitions, as it involves incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models and policy designs, which helps integrate their mental models and preferences into simulations. This paper reviews the current state of participatory modelling in transition research for energy scenarios. Drawing on a comprehensive literature review and semi-structured interviews, we extract findings by evaluating participatory modelling techniques against criteria such as normative dimensions, non-linearity, actors and agency, uncertainty and emergence. Findings reveal that techniques like Cross-Impact Balance analysis and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping excel in incorporating normative aspects and capturing diverse actor perspectives, yet they face challenges in addressing non-linearity and uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Agent-Based Models are strong in managing uncertainty and modelling emergent behaviours but show limitations in normative aspects. Our findings provide a foundation for scholars and practitioners in the field of socio-technical energy transitions to select participatory modelling techniques best suited to their specific research contexts. This review also highlights gaps between theoretical potential and practical application of participatory modelling techniques. Bridging these gaps requires methodological advancement and a more rigorous application in empirical studies. To this end, future directions for blending techniques are discussed to better address the complexities of energy transitions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792425000095Energy transitionParticipatory modellingEnergy scenariosTransition studiesSocio-technical systems |
| spellingShingle | Jair K.E.K. Campfens Mert Duygan Claudia R. Binder A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios Advances in Applied Energy Energy transition Participatory modelling Energy scenarios Transition studies Socio-technical systems |
| title | A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios |
| title_full | A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios |
| title_fullStr | A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios |
| title_short | A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios |
| title_sort | review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios |
| topic | Energy transition Participatory modelling Energy scenarios Transition studies Socio-technical systems |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792425000095 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jairkekcampfens areviewofparticipatorymodellingtechniquesforenergytransitionscenarios AT mertduygan areviewofparticipatorymodellingtechniquesforenergytransitionscenarios AT claudiarbinder areviewofparticipatorymodellingtechniquesforenergytransitionscenarios AT jairkekcampfens reviewofparticipatorymodellingtechniquesforenergytransitionscenarios AT mertduygan reviewofparticipatorymodellingtechniquesforenergytransitionscenarios AT claudiarbinder reviewofparticipatorymodellingtechniquesforenergytransitionscenarios |