Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Markets
Based on the economic and climate policy uncertainty index and the price data of major carbon emission trading markets from May 2014 to August 2023, this paper uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and mixing data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model to analyze the impact of pol...
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| Format: | Article |
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2025-05-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/10/2448 |
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| author | Zhuoer Chen Xiaohai Gao Nan Chen Yihang Zhao Sen Guo |
| author_facet | Zhuoer Chen Xiaohai Gao Nan Chen Yihang Zhao Sen Guo |
| author_sort | Zhuoer Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on the economic and climate policy uncertainty index and the price data of major carbon emission trading markets from May 2014 to August 2023, this paper uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and mixing data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model to analyze the impact of policy uncertainty on carbon market price volatility. The results indicate the following: (1) The price volatility in the Hubei carbon market is influenced by both economic and climate policy uncertainties, while the Guangdong market is only affected by climate policy uncertainty, and the Shenzhen carbon market is only affected by economic policy uncertainty. (2) Before the establishment of the national carbon market, the carbon market prices in Hubei were impacted by both policy uncertainties, while Guangdong and Shenzhen carbon markets were only affected by climate policy uncertainties. (3) On the contrary, after the establishment of the national carbon market, only the Shenzhen carbon market was affected by both policy uncertainties, and the price volatility in the Guangdong and Hubei carbon markets was not affected by policy uncertainties. The above research conclusions are helpful for regulatory agencies and policymakers to assess the future direction of the pilot carbon market and provide an empirical basis for preventing and resolving policy risks. At the same time, the proposed GARCH-MIDAS model effectively solves the inconsistent frequency problem of policy uncertainty and carbon price volatility, providing a new perspective for the study of factors affecting carbon market volatility. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ab263b07924e4756bb7aaf8561566bfe |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj-art-ab263b07924e4756bb7aaf8561566bfe2025-08-20T02:33:59ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732025-05-011810244810.3390/en18102448Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading MarketsZhuoer Chen0Xiaohai Gao1Nan Chen2Yihang Zhao3Sen Guo4Economic & Technology Research Institute, State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Jinan 250021, ChinaEconomic & Technology Research Institute, State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Jinan 250021, ChinaState Grid Jinan Power Supply Company, Jinan 250001, ChinaCEC Technical & Economic Consulting Center of Power Construction, Electric Power Development Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100053, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, ChinaBased on the economic and climate policy uncertainty index and the price data of major carbon emission trading markets from May 2014 to August 2023, this paper uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and mixing data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model to analyze the impact of policy uncertainty on carbon market price volatility. The results indicate the following: (1) The price volatility in the Hubei carbon market is influenced by both economic and climate policy uncertainties, while the Guangdong market is only affected by climate policy uncertainty, and the Shenzhen carbon market is only affected by economic policy uncertainty. (2) Before the establishment of the national carbon market, the carbon market prices in Hubei were impacted by both policy uncertainties, while Guangdong and Shenzhen carbon markets were only affected by climate policy uncertainties. (3) On the contrary, after the establishment of the national carbon market, only the Shenzhen carbon market was affected by both policy uncertainties, and the price volatility in the Guangdong and Hubei carbon markets was not affected by policy uncertainties. The above research conclusions are helpful for regulatory agencies and policymakers to assess the future direction of the pilot carbon market and provide an empirical basis for preventing and resolving policy risks. At the same time, the proposed GARCH-MIDAS model effectively solves the inconsistent frequency problem of policy uncertainty and carbon price volatility, providing a new perspective for the study of factors affecting carbon market volatility.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/10/2448economic policy uncertaintyclimate policy uncertaintycarbon marketGARCH-MIDAS |
| spellingShingle | Zhuoer Chen Xiaohai Gao Nan Chen Yihang Zhao Sen Guo Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Markets Energies economic policy uncertainty climate policy uncertainty carbon market GARCH-MIDAS |
| title | Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Markets |
| title_full | Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Markets |
| title_fullStr | Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Markets |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Markets |
| title_short | Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Markets |
| title_sort | economy or climate impact of policy uncertainty on price volatility of china s carbon emission trading markets |
| topic | economic policy uncertainty climate policy uncertainty carbon market GARCH-MIDAS |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/10/2448 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhuoerchen economyorclimateimpactofpolicyuncertaintyonpricevolatilityofchinascarbonemissiontradingmarkets AT xiaohaigao economyorclimateimpactofpolicyuncertaintyonpricevolatilityofchinascarbonemissiontradingmarkets AT nanchen economyorclimateimpactofpolicyuncertaintyonpricevolatilityofchinascarbonemissiontradingmarkets AT yihangzhao economyorclimateimpactofpolicyuncertaintyonpricevolatilityofchinascarbonemissiontradingmarkets AT senguo economyorclimateimpactofpolicyuncertaintyonpricevolatilityofchinascarbonemissiontradingmarkets |