Increasing the Glen–Nye Power‐Law Exponent Accelerates Ice‐Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Abstract Glacier flow is typically modeled using a power‐law rheology known as the Glen–Nye flow law, with the power n assumed to be 3. However, recent research and past observations suggest that n=4 may better represent ice flow in some locations. We lack a quantitative understanding of how much n...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112516 |
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| author | Benjamin Getraer Mathieu Morlighem |
| author_facet | Benjamin Getraer Mathieu Morlighem |
| author_sort | Benjamin Getraer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Glacier flow is typically modeled using a power‐law rheology known as the Glen–Nye flow law, with the power n assumed to be 3. However, recent research and past observations suggest that n=4 may better represent ice flow in some locations. We lack a quantitative understanding of how much n affects ice‐loss projections, and its significance relative to other sources of uncertainty. Here, we test the effect of n=3 versus n=4 in a series of 300‐year forward simulations of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. We find that in periods of rapid grounding line retreat, uncertainty in n leads to a larger spread in ice‐loss projections than the spread due to uncertainty in climate forcing. The spatial sensitivity of n is generally proportional to change in strain rates, so we expect regions undergoing more moderate dynamic change to be less sensitive to n. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-aaeea5bbd034439c82a44acb3876dc09 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-aaeea5bbd034439c82a44acb3876dc092025-08-20T02:30:59ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-04-01527n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112516Increasing the Glen–Nye Power‐Law Exponent Accelerates Ice‐Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West AntarcticaBenjamin Getraer0Mathieu Morlighem1Department of Earth Sciences Dartmouth College Hanover NH USADepartment of Earth Sciences Dartmouth College Hanover NH USAAbstract Glacier flow is typically modeled using a power‐law rheology known as the Glen–Nye flow law, with the power n assumed to be 3. However, recent research and past observations suggest that n=4 may better represent ice flow in some locations. We lack a quantitative understanding of how much n affects ice‐loss projections, and its significance relative to other sources of uncertainty. Here, we test the effect of n=3 versus n=4 in a series of 300‐year forward simulations of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. We find that in periods of rapid grounding line retreat, uncertainty in n leads to a larger spread in ice‐loss projections than the spread due to uncertainty in climate forcing. The spatial sensitivity of n is generally proportional to change in strain rates, so we expect regions undergoing more moderate dynamic change to be less sensitive to n.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112516 |
| spellingShingle | Benjamin Getraer Mathieu Morlighem Increasing the Glen–Nye Power‐Law Exponent Accelerates Ice‐Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Increasing the Glen–Nye Power‐Law Exponent Accelerates Ice‐Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
| title_full | Increasing the Glen–Nye Power‐Law Exponent Accelerates Ice‐Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
| title_fullStr | Increasing the Glen–Nye Power‐Law Exponent Accelerates Ice‐Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increasing the Glen–Nye Power‐Law Exponent Accelerates Ice‐Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
| title_short | Increasing the Glen–Nye Power‐Law Exponent Accelerates Ice‐Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
| title_sort | increasing the glen nye power law exponent accelerates ice loss projections for the amundsen sea embayment west antarctica |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112516 |
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