Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors
<p>Climate change and associated human response are supposed to greatly alter surface ozone (O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>), an air pollutant generated through photochemical reactions involving both anthropogenic and biogenic precursors. Ho...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/2649/2025/acp-25-2649-2025.pdf |
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| author | J. Yang Y. Wang L. Zhang L. Zhang Y. Zhao Y. Zhao |
| author_facet | J. Yang Y. Wang L. Zhang L. Zhang Y. Zhao Y. Zhao |
| author_sort | J. Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Climate change and associated human response are supposed to greatly alter surface ozone (O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>), an air pollutant generated through photochemical reactions involving both anthropogenic and biogenic precursors. However, a comprehensive evaluation of China's O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> response to these multiple changes has been lacking. We present a modeling framework under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5), incorporating future changes in local and foreign anthropogenic emissions, meteorological conditions, and biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. From the 2020s to 2060s, daily maximum 8 h average (MDA8) O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> concentration is simulated to decline by 7.7 ppb in the warm season (April–September) and 1.1 ppb in the non-warm season (October–March) over the country, with a substantial reduction in exceedances of national O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> standards. Notably, O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> decreases are more pronounced in developed regions such as Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) during the warm season, with reductions of 9.7, 14.8, and 12.5 ppb, respectively. Conversely, in the non-warm season, the MDA8 O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> in BTH and YRD will increase by 5.5 and 3.3 ppb, partly attributed to reduced NO<span class="inline-formula"><sub><i>x</i></sub></span> emissions and thereby a weakened titration effect. O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> pollution will thus expand into the non-warm season in the future. Sensitivity analyses reveal that local emission change will predominantly influence future O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> distribution and magnitude, with contributions from other factors within <span class="inline-formula">±25</span> %. Furthermore, the joint impact of multiple factors on O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> reduction will be larger than the sum of individual factors, due to changes in the O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> formation regime. This study highlights the necessity of region-specific emission control strategies to mitigate potential O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> increases during the non-warm season and under the climate penalty.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-aae87385f63840abb44c818e03e6c45f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
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| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj-art-aae87385f63840abb44c818e03e6c45f2025-08-20T02:11:12ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242025-02-01252649266610.5194/acp-25-2649-2025Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factorsJ. Yang0Y. Wang1L. Zhang2L. Zhang3Y. Zhao4Y. Zhao5State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, ChinaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu 210044, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Rd., Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, ChinaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu 210044, China<p>Climate change and associated human response are supposed to greatly alter surface ozone (O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>), an air pollutant generated through photochemical reactions involving both anthropogenic and biogenic precursors. However, a comprehensive evaluation of China's O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> response to these multiple changes has been lacking. We present a modeling framework under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5), incorporating future changes in local and foreign anthropogenic emissions, meteorological conditions, and biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. From the 2020s to 2060s, daily maximum 8 h average (MDA8) O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> concentration is simulated to decline by 7.7 ppb in the warm season (April–September) and 1.1 ppb in the non-warm season (October–March) over the country, with a substantial reduction in exceedances of national O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> standards. Notably, O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> decreases are more pronounced in developed regions such as Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) during the warm season, with reductions of 9.7, 14.8, and 12.5 ppb, respectively. Conversely, in the non-warm season, the MDA8 O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> in BTH and YRD will increase by 5.5 and 3.3 ppb, partly attributed to reduced NO<span class="inline-formula"><sub><i>x</i></sub></span> emissions and thereby a weakened titration effect. O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> pollution will thus expand into the non-warm season in the future. Sensitivity analyses reveal that local emission change will predominantly influence future O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> distribution and magnitude, with contributions from other factors within <span class="inline-formula">±25</span> %. Furthermore, the joint impact of multiple factors on O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> reduction will be larger than the sum of individual factors, due to changes in the O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> formation regime. This study highlights the necessity of region-specific emission control strategies to mitigate potential O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> increases during the non-warm season and under the climate penalty.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/2649/2025/acp-25-2649-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. Yang Y. Wang L. Zhang L. Zhang Y. Zhao Y. Zhao Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors |
| title_full | Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors |
| title_fullStr | Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors |
| title_short | Investigating the response of China's surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors |
| title_sort | investigating the response of china s surface ozone concentration to the future changes of multiple factors |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/2649/2025/acp-25-2649-2025.pdf |
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