Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) often qualifies its statements by use of probabilistic “likelihood” language. In this paper, I show that this language is not properly interpreted in either frequentist or Bayesian terms—simply put, the IPCC uses both kinds of statistics to calcul...
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| Language: | English |
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Michigan Publishing
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Ergo, An Open Access Journal of Philosophy |
| Online Access: | https://journals.publishing.umich.edu/ergo/article/id/4637/ |
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| author | Corey Dethier |
| author_facet | Corey Dethier |
| author_sort | Corey Dethier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) often qualifies its statements by use of probabilistic “likelihood” language. In this paper, I show that this language is not properly interpreted in either frequentist or Bayesian terms—simply put, the IPCC uses both kinds of statistics to calculate these likelihoods. I then offer a deflationist interpretation: the probabilistic language expresses nothing more than how compatible the evidence is with the given hypothesis according to some method that generates normalized scores. I end by drawing some tentative normative conclusions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-aaa826c55d4f463c8edd8e1222b8bc9b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2330-4014 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Michigan Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ergo, An Open Access Journal of Philosophy |
| spelling | doaj-art-aaa826c55d4f463c8edd8e1222b8bc9b2025-08-20T02:13:24ZengMichigan PublishingErgo, An Open Access Journal of Philosophy2330-40142023-11-0110010.3998/ergo.4637Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC ReportsCorey Dethier0Leibniz Universität HannoverThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) often qualifies its statements by use of probabilistic “likelihood” language. In this paper, I show that this language is not properly interpreted in either frequentist or Bayesian terms—simply put, the IPCC uses both kinds of statistics to calculate these likelihoods. I then offer a deflationist interpretation: the probabilistic language expresses nothing more than how compatible the evidence is with the given hypothesis according to some method that generates normalized scores. I end by drawing some tentative normative conclusions.https://journals.publishing.umich.edu/ergo/article/id/4637/ |
| spellingShingle | Corey Dethier Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports Ergo, An Open Access Journal of Philosophy |
| title | Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports |
| title_full | Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports |
| title_fullStr | Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports |
| title_full_unstemmed | Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports |
| title_short | Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports |
| title_sort | interpreting the probabilistic language in ipcc reports |
| url | https://journals.publishing.umich.edu/ergo/article/id/4637/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT coreydethier interpretingtheprobabilisticlanguageinipccreports |