Established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissection

Background: Metachronous gastric cancer (MGC) has gained increasing attention due to the preservation of the stomach during endoscopic resection for early gastric cancer (EGC). Objectives: This study aims to investigate the risk factors associated with MGC in the postoperative surveillance of endosc...

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Main Authors: Ying Xiang, Zhenyu Wang, Yichun Ma, Ying Yuan, Wenying Li, Yanmei Zhu, Qiange Ye, Yanan Wang, Jinping Yang, Qi Sun, Xiwei Ding, Faraz Longi, Dehua Tang, Fangmei An, Guifang Xu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2025-04-01
Series:Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/17562848251330973
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author Ying Xiang
Zhenyu Wang
Yichun Ma
Ying Yuan
Wenying Li
Yanmei Zhu
Qiange Ye
Yanan Wang
Jinping Yang
Qi Sun
Xiwei Ding
Faraz Longi
Dehua Tang
Fangmei An
Guifang Xu
author_facet Ying Xiang
Zhenyu Wang
Yichun Ma
Ying Yuan
Wenying Li
Yanmei Zhu
Qiange Ye
Yanan Wang
Jinping Yang
Qi Sun
Xiwei Ding
Faraz Longi
Dehua Tang
Fangmei An
Guifang Xu
author_sort Ying Xiang
collection DOAJ
description Background: Metachronous gastric cancer (MGC) has gained increasing attention due to the preservation of the stomach during endoscopic resection for early gastric cancer (EGC). Objectives: This study aims to investigate the risk factors associated with MGC in the postoperative surveillance of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). Design: A retrospective case-control study. Methods: The retrospective study was conducted between January 1, 2014, and June 30, 2020, at the Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School. Results: Several independent risk factors for developing MGC were identified as smoking history (hazard ratio (HR) 2.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25–4.58), metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.23–4.87), cerebrovascular disease (CD; HR 2.55, 95% CI 1.09–5.99), multiple lesions (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.17–3.63), Helicobacter pylori infection status (eradicated vs negative: HR 1.42, 95% CI 0.60–3.39; persistent vs negative: HR 5.47, 95% CI 2.13–14.03), and atrophic gastritis (AG; moderate vs mild: HR 4.44, 95% CI 1.36–14.53; severe vs mild: HR 7.30, 95% CI 2.11–25.22). The established nomogram based on these risk factors demonstrated high accuracy both in the training and test sets, with concordance indexes of 0.787, 0.762, and 0.845 for the training set, and 0.764, 0.824, and 0.788 for the test set at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Conclusion: The risk factors for developing MGC after curative ESD for EGC were identified as smoking history, MASLD, CD, multiple lesions, H. pylori infection status, and AG. To reduce the risk of MGC, a healthy lifestyle, regular H. pylori testing, and annual endoscopic screening are recommended.
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spelling doaj-art-aa86d08d0f234d59bb2cb04807b4a98e2025-08-20T02:19:50ZengSAGE PublishingTherapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology1756-28482025-04-011810.1177/17562848251330973Established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissectionYing XiangZhenyu WangYichun MaYing YuanWenying LiYanmei ZhuQiange YeYanan WangJinping YangQi SunXiwei DingFaraz LongiDehua TangFangmei AnGuifang XuBackground: Metachronous gastric cancer (MGC) has gained increasing attention due to the preservation of the stomach during endoscopic resection for early gastric cancer (EGC). Objectives: This study aims to investigate the risk factors associated with MGC in the postoperative surveillance of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). Design: A retrospective case-control study. Methods: The retrospective study was conducted between January 1, 2014, and June 30, 2020, at the Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School. Results: Several independent risk factors for developing MGC were identified as smoking history (hazard ratio (HR) 2.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25–4.58), metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.23–4.87), cerebrovascular disease (CD; HR 2.55, 95% CI 1.09–5.99), multiple lesions (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.17–3.63), Helicobacter pylori infection status (eradicated vs negative: HR 1.42, 95% CI 0.60–3.39; persistent vs negative: HR 5.47, 95% CI 2.13–14.03), and atrophic gastritis (AG; moderate vs mild: HR 4.44, 95% CI 1.36–14.53; severe vs mild: HR 7.30, 95% CI 2.11–25.22). The established nomogram based on these risk factors demonstrated high accuracy both in the training and test sets, with concordance indexes of 0.787, 0.762, and 0.845 for the training set, and 0.764, 0.824, and 0.788 for the test set at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Conclusion: The risk factors for developing MGC after curative ESD for EGC were identified as smoking history, MASLD, CD, multiple lesions, H. pylori infection status, and AG. To reduce the risk of MGC, a healthy lifestyle, regular H. pylori testing, and annual endoscopic screening are recommended.https://doi.org/10.1177/17562848251330973
spellingShingle Ying Xiang
Zhenyu Wang
Yichun Ma
Ying Yuan
Wenying Li
Yanmei Zhu
Qiange Ye
Yanan Wang
Jinping Yang
Qi Sun
Xiwei Ding
Faraz Longi
Dehua Tang
Fangmei An
Guifang Xu
Established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissection
Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology
title Established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissection
title_full Established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissection
title_fullStr Established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissection
title_full_unstemmed Established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissection
title_short Established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics, lifestyle, and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissection
title_sort established nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics lifestyle and comorbidities risk factors for metachronous recurrence in curative endoscopic submucosal dissection
url https://doi.org/10.1177/17562848251330973
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