The integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calving
Iceberg calving is a major source of ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. However, it is still one of the most poorly understood aspects of ice sheet dynamics, in part due to its variability at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Despite this variability, most current large...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Glaciology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143025100567/type/journal_article |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849429419351867392 |
|---|---|
| author | Aminat A. Ambelorun Alexander A. Robel |
| author_facet | Aminat A. Ambelorun Alexander A. Robel |
| author_sort | Aminat A. Ambelorun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Iceberg calving is a major source of ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. However, it is still one of the most poorly understood aspects of ice sheet dynamics, in part due to its variability at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Despite this variability, most current large-scale ice sheet models assume that calving can be represented as a deterministic flux. In this study, we describe an approach to modeling calving as a stochastic process, using a one-dimensional depth-integrated marine-terminating glacier model as a demonstration. We show that for glaciers where calving occurs more frequently than the typical model time steps (days-months), stochastic calving schemes sampling a binomial distribution accurately simulate the probabilistic distribution of glacier state. We also find that incorporating stochastic calving into simulations of a glacier with a buttressing ice shelf changes the simulated mean glacier state, due to nonlinearities in ice shelf dynamics. Relatedly, we find that changes in calving frequency, without changes in the mean calving flux, can cause ice shelf retreat. This new stochastic approach can be implemented in large-scale ice sheet models, which should improve our capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions of future ice sheet change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-aa7fdbf8f94d4de4b0a847298d104ead |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Glaciology |
| spelling | doaj-art-aa7fdbf8f94d4de4b0a847298d104ead2025-08-20T03:28:22ZengCambridge University PressJournal of Glaciology0022-14301727-56522025-01-017110.1017/jog.2025.10056The integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calvingAminat A. Ambelorun0https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1422-6930Alexander A. Robel1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4520-0105School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USASchool of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USAIceberg calving is a major source of ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. However, it is still one of the most poorly understood aspects of ice sheet dynamics, in part due to its variability at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Despite this variability, most current large-scale ice sheet models assume that calving can be represented as a deterministic flux. In this study, we describe an approach to modeling calving as a stochastic process, using a one-dimensional depth-integrated marine-terminating glacier model as a demonstration. We show that for glaciers where calving occurs more frequently than the typical model time steps (days-months), stochastic calving schemes sampling a binomial distribution accurately simulate the probabilistic distribution of glacier state. We also find that incorporating stochastic calving into simulations of a glacier with a buttressing ice shelf changes the simulated mean glacier state, due to nonlinearities in ice shelf dynamics. Relatedly, we find that changes in calving frequency, without changes in the mean calving flux, can cause ice shelf retreat. This new stochastic approach can be implemented in large-scale ice sheet models, which should improve our capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions of future ice sheet change.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143025100567/type/journal_articleIceberg calvingIce dynamicsStochastic calvingGlacier modelingIce shelves |
| spellingShingle | Aminat A. Ambelorun Alexander A. Robel The integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calving Journal of Glaciology Iceberg calving Ice dynamics Stochastic calving Glacier modeling Ice shelves |
| title | The integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calving |
| title_full | The integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calving |
| title_fullStr | The integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calving |
| title_full_unstemmed | The integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calving |
| title_short | The integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calving |
| title_sort | integrated ice sheet response to stochastic iceberg calving |
| topic | Iceberg calving Ice dynamics Stochastic calving Glacier modeling Ice shelves |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143025100567/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aminataambelorun theintegratedicesheetresponsetostochasticicebergcalving AT alexanderarobel theintegratedicesheetresponsetostochasticicebergcalving AT aminataambelorun integratedicesheetresponsetostochasticicebergcalving AT alexanderarobel integratedicesheetresponsetostochasticicebergcalving |