The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes
Abstract Minor ischemic stroke (MIS) patients face significant risks of recurrent strokes, necessitating reliable predictive tools. This single-center retrospective study developed and validated a novel model for predicting 1-year stroke recurrence in MIS patients, defined as those with National Ins...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-93741-8 |
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| author | Zhi-Xin Huang Haike Lu Yi Lu Yingyi Dai Jianguo Lin Zhenguo Liu |
| author_facet | Zhi-Xin Huang Haike Lu Yi Lu Yingyi Dai Jianguo Lin Zhenguo Liu |
| author_sort | Zhi-Xin Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Minor ischemic stroke (MIS) patients face significant risks of recurrent strokes, necessitating reliable predictive tools. This single-center retrospective study developed and validated a novel model for predicting 1-year stroke recurrence in MIS patients, defined as those with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores < 4 within seven days of symptom onset. Among 218 patients (median age 64 years, 26.6% female), 32 (14.7%) experienced recurrent strokes within one year. Analysis of clinical and lifestyle variables identified physical activity, large artery stroke, admission NIHSS score, and smoking as significant predictors, forming the PLANS model. The model demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to the Essen model, with a higher C-index (0.780 vs. 0.556) and better calibration. Risk reclassification metrics showed significant improvements, with integrated discrimination improvement of 20.3%, continuous net reclassification improvement of 41.7%, and median risk score improvement of 18.5%. The PLANS model, incorporating both traditional and novel risk factors, provides a valuable tool for patient stratification and personalized secondary prevention strategies. External validation in diverse cohorts is warranted to confirm these promising results. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a9db965b7f0f48cd99814a4ac012e1fa |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-a9db965b7f0f48cd99814a4ac012e1fa2025-08-20T02:52:16ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-03-0115111010.1038/s41598-025-93741-8The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokesZhi-Xin Huang0Haike Lu1Yi Lu2Yingyi Dai3Jianguo Lin4Zhenguo Liu5NeuroMedical Center, The Affiliated Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital of Jinan UniversityNeuroMedical Center, The Affiliated Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital of Jinan UniversityInterventional Vascular Surgery Department, Guangdong Second Provincial General HospitalNeuroMedical Center, The Affiliated Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital of Jinan UniversityDepartment of Pediatrics, Washington University in Saint LouisCenter for Precision Medicine and Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Missouri School of MedicineAbstract Minor ischemic stroke (MIS) patients face significant risks of recurrent strokes, necessitating reliable predictive tools. This single-center retrospective study developed and validated a novel model for predicting 1-year stroke recurrence in MIS patients, defined as those with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores < 4 within seven days of symptom onset. Among 218 patients (median age 64 years, 26.6% female), 32 (14.7%) experienced recurrent strokes within one year. Analysis of clinical and lifestyle variables identified physical activity, large artery stroke, admission NIHSS score, and smoking as significant predictors, forming the PLANS model. The model demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to the Essen model, with a higher C-index (0.780 vs. 0.556) and better calibration. Risk reclassification metrics showed significant improvements, with integrated discrimination improvement of 20.3%, continuous net reclassification improvement of 41.7%, and median risk score improvement of 18.5%. The PLANS model, incorporating both traditional and novel risk factors, provides a valuable tool for patient stratification and personalized secondary prevention strategies. External validation in diverse cohorts is warranted to confirm these promising results.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-93741-8LifestyleMinor strokeRecurrent strokeStroke |
| spellingShingle | Zhi-Xin Huang Haike Lu Yi Lu Yingyi Dai Jianguo Lin Zhenguo Liu The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes Scientific Reports Lifestyle Minor stroke Recurrent stroke Stroke |
| title | The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes |
| title_full | The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes |
| title_fullStr | The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes |
| title_full_unstemmed | The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes |
| title_short | The PLANS model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes |
| title_sort | plans model predicts recurrent strokes in patients with minor ischemic strokes |
| topic | Lifestyle Minor stroke Recurrent stroke Stroke |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-93741-8 |
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