Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) Species

ABSTRACT Plants with restricted distributions and small population sizes are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Sesamum species are ideal for species distribution modeling due to their ecological sensitivity, agricultural and economic importance, and wide geographic range, providing insights...

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Main Authors: Daniel A. Zhigila, Nawal Shrestha, Zainab A. Abubakar, A. Muthama Muasya
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-05-01
Series:Ecology and Evolution
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71387
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author Daniel A. Zhigila
Nawal Shrestha
Zainab A. Abubakar
A. Muthama Muasya
author_facet Daniel A. Zhigila
Nawal Shrestha
Zainab A. Abubakar
A. Muthama Muasya
author_sort Daniel A. Zhigila
collection DOAJ
description ABSTRACT Plants with restricted distributions and small population sizes are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Sesamum species are ideal for species distribution modeling due to their ecological sensitivity, agricultural and economic importance, and wide geographic range, providing insights for conservation and policy. We applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the global ecological niche breadth of Sesamum species and examine how bioclimatic and soil variables influence their future (2080) distribution. We identified key environmental drivers and projected species‐specific range shifts under changing climatic conditions. MaxEnt models effectively predicted suitable habitats, with climate variables playing a dominant role. Precipitation of the wettest month (BIO13) was particularly influential for S. abbreviatum, S. alatum, and S. angustifolium, while temperature variables (BIO7, BIO11) were also key. Elevation moderately impacted S. angolense, while soil factors such as pH (S. abbreviatum) and clay content (S. angolense) exhibited species‐specific effects. Principal component analysis revealed variation in niche breadth, with S. indicum and S. schinzianum occupying broader ecological ranges, whereas S. saxicola and S. abbreviatum were more restricted. Future projections suggest 46.4% of the species will experience range contractions, with S. schinzianum facing the most significant decline. Conversely, 39.3% of the species, including S. imperatricis and S. abbreviatum, are expected to expand their ranges. Phylogenetic analyses indicate a random distribution of niche breadth and extinction risk across the genus. Our findings highlight the susceptibility of Sesamum species to climate change, emphasizing the need for urgent conservation actions. Prioritizing vulnerable species such as S. forbesii and S. sesamoides, alongside habitat restoration and long‐term monitoring, is crucial to mitigate population declines and prevent extinction.
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spelling doaj-art-a9c620b970224f70b9b6355e9ce501bb2025-08-20T02:34:17ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582025-05-01155n/an/a10.1002/ece3.71387Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) SpeciesDaniel A. Zhigila0Nawal Shrestha1Zainab A. Abubakar2A. Muthama Muasya3Department of Plant Science Gombe State University Tudun Wada Gombe State NigeriaDepartment of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology Harvard University Herbaria Cambridge Massachusetts USADepartment of Plant Science Gombe State University Tudun Wada Gombe State NigeriaThe Bolus Herbarium, Department of Biological Sciences University of Cape Town Cape Town South AfricaABSTRACT Plants with restricted distributions and small population sizes are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Sesamum species are ideal for species distribution modeling due to their ecological sensitivity, agricultural and economic importance, and wide geographic range, providing insights for conservation and policy. We applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the global ecological niche breadth of Sesamum species and examine how bioclimatic and soil variables influence their future (2080) distribution. We identified key environmental drivers and projected species‐specific range shifts under changing climatic conditions. MaxEnt models effectively predicted suitable habitats, with climate variables playing a dominant role. Precipitation of the wettest month (BIO13) was particularly influential for S. abbreviatum, S. alatum, and S. angustifolium, while temperature variables (BIO7, BIO11) were also key. Elevation moderately impacted S. angolense, while soil factors such as pH (S. abbreviatum) and clay content (S. angolense) exhibited species‐specific effects. Principal component analysis revealed variation in niche breadth, with S. indicum and S. schinzianum occupying broader ecological ranges, whereas S. saxicola and S. abbreviatum were more restricted. Future projections suggest 46.4% of the species will experience range contractions, with S. schinzianum facing the most significant decline. Conversely, 39.3% of the species, including S. imperatricis and S. abbreviatum, are expected to expand their ranges. Phylogenetic analyses indicate a random distribution of niche breadth and extinction risk across the genus. Our findings highlight the susceptibility of Sesamum species to climate change, emphasizing the need for urgent conservation actions. Prioritizing vulnerable species such as S. forbesii and S. sesamoides, alongside habitat restoration and long‐term monitoring, is crucial to mitigate population declines and prevent extinction.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71387climate changeextinction riskniche breadthsphylogenetic signal sesamumspecies distribution modeling
spellingShingle Daniel A. Zhigila
Nawal Shrestha
Zainab A. Abubakar
A. Muthama Muasya
Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) Species
Ecology and Evolution
climate change
extinction risk
niche breadths
phylogenetic signal sesamum
species distribution modeling
title Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) Species
title_full Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) Species
title_fullStr Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) Species
title_full_unstemmed Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) Species
title_short Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) Species
title_sort assessing climate impact distribution modeling and conservation assessments of sesamum pedaliaceae species
topic climate change
extinction risk
niche breadths
phylogenetic signal sesamum
species distribution modeling
url https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71387
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AT zainabaabubakar assessingclimateimpactdistributionmodelingandconservationassessmentsofsesamumpedaliaceaespecies
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