Application of Observation Perturbation-based EDA Method to CMA Ensemble Forecasting
To facilitate the development of convective-allowing ensemble forecasting technology based on the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) Mesoscale Model (CMA-MESO), an observation perturbation scheme is designed. This scheme further enhances the ensemble data assimilation (EDA) method for...
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Editorial Office of Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
2025-03-01
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| Series: | 应用气象学报 |
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| Online Access: | http://qikan.camscma.cn/en/article/doi/10.11898/1001-7313.20250201 |
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| author | Zhang Hanbin Xia Yu Cao Yajie |
| author_facet | Zhang Hanbin Xia Yu Cao Yajie |
| author_sort | Zhang Hanbin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To facilitate the development of convective-allowing ensemble forecasting technology based on the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) Mesoscale Model (CMA-MESO), an observation perturbation scheme is designed. This scheme further enhances the ensemble data assimilation (EDA) method for generating initial conditions for CMA-MESO convective allowing ensemble forecasting system. The design and distinctive characteristics of the observation perturbations are studied, and several severe convective events are analyzed. It can be concluded that the observation perturbation scheme developed for CMA-MESO aligns with actual observation error characteristics, it can address uncertainties in the model initial analysis field stemming from observations, and multiple sets of observations generated can effectively represent uncertainties in observations. Observation sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the impact characteristics of observation perturbations, and a typical convective weather event in Beijing is analyzed, results indicate that observation perturbations primarily affect the short-range forecast performance of CMA-MESO model, causing relatively small forecast perturbations. The growth of perturbations reaches saturation within a 12-24 h forecast range, while the energy of observational perturbations gradually dissipates as the forecast range extends. Observational uncertainties significantly influence the local convective characteristics and the spatiotemporal distribution of convective-related elements in short-range forecasts. Based on observation perturbations, an EDA initial value perturbation scheme is constructed, and a convective-scale ensemble forecasting experiment with a 3 km resolution is conducted over the North China. Results indicate that EDA scheme can effectively generate initial perturbations for convective-scale ensemble forecasting. Compared to traditional dynamic downscaling methods, EDA scheme minimizes uncertainties arising from large-scale background fields in convective-scale ensemble forecasting, while emphasizing uncertainties that originate from observations. Ensemble forecast verification results indicate that EDA scheme can effectively enhance the reliability of element forecasts. Case studies of severe convective precipitation demonstrate that EDA scheme can improve the forecast accuracy of precipitation location and significantly enhance the effectiveness of precipitation probability forecasts. Results demonstrate the feasibility of constructing observational perturbations and EDA scheme in the development of CMA-MESO convective-allowing ensemble forecasting. Although ensemble spread may be slightly compromised due to data assimilation, there is a significant improvement in the quality of initial values for ensemble members and the accuracy of short-range forecasts, highlighting the practical application value of this method. Given that data assimilation only significantly impacts short-range forecasts, it remains essential to improve the associated model perturbation techniques to enhance the forecast performance of CMA-MESO convective-allowing ensemble forecasting for longer ranges. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a9b2fd2536084cd984a9e053603cf166 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1001-7313 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Journal of Applied Meteorological Science |
| record_format | Article |
| series | 应用气象学报 |
| spelling | doaj-art-a9b2fd2536084cd984a9e053603cf1662025-08-20T01:51:28ZengEditorial Office of Journal of Applied Meteorological Science应用气象学报1001-73132025-03-0136212914110.11898/1001-7313.20250201yyqxxb-36-2-129Application of Observation Perturbation-based EDA Method to CMA Ensemble ForecastingZhang Hanbin0Xia Yu1Cao Yajie2Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100081Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100081Tangshan Meteorological Bureau of Hebei, Tangshan 063000To facilitate the development of convective-allowing ensemble forecasting technology based on the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) Mesoscale Model (CMA-MESO), an observation perturbation scheme is designed. This scheme further enhances the ensemble data assimilation (EDA) method for generating initial conditions for CMA-MESO convective allowing ensemble forecasting system. The design and distinctive characteristics of the observation perturbations are studied, and several severe convective events are analyzed. It can be concluded that the observation perturbation scheme developed for CMA-MESO aligns with actual observation error characteristics, it can address uncertainties in the model initial analysis field stemming from observations, and multiple sets of observations generated can effectively represent uncertainties in observations. Observation sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the impact characteristics of observation perturbations, and a typical convective weather event in Beijing is analyzed, results indicate that observation perturbations primarily affect the short-range forecast performance of CMA-MESO model, causing relatively small forecast perturbations. The growth of perturbations reaches saturation within a 12-24 h forecast range, while the energy of observational perturbations gradually dissipates as the forecast range extends. Observational uncertainties significantly influence the local convective characteristics and the spatiotemporal distribution of convective-related elements in short-range forecasts. Based on observation perturbations, an EDA initial value perturbation scheme is constructed, and a convective-scale ensemble forecasting experiment with a 3 km resolution is conducted over the North China. Results indicate that EDA scheme can effectively generate initial perturbations for convective-scale ensemble forecasting. Compared to traditional dynamic downscaling methods, EDA scheme minimizes uncertainties arising from large-scale background fields in convective-scale ensemble forecasting, while emphasizing uncertainties that originate from observations. Ensemble forecast verification results indicate that EDA scheme can effectively enhance the reliability of element forecasts. Case studies of severe convective precipitation demonstrate that EDA scheme can improve the forecast accuracy of precipitation location and significantly enhance the effectiveness of precipitation probability forecasts. Results demonstrate the feasibility of constructing observational perturbations and EDA scheme in the development of CMA-MESO convective-allowing ensemble forecasting. Although ensemble spread may be slightly compromised due to data assimilation, there is a significant improvement in the quality of initial values for ensemble members and the accuracy of short-range forecasts, highlighting the practical application value of this method. Given that data assimilation only significantly impacts short-range forecasts, it remains essential to improve the associated model perturbation techniques to enhance the forecast performance of CMA-MESO convective-allowing ensemble forecasting for longer ranges.http://qikan.camscma.cn/en/article/doi/10.11898/1001-7313.20250201convective-allowing ensemble forecastobservation perturbationensemble data assimilation |
| spellingShingle | Zhang Hanbin Xia Yu Cao Yajie Application of Observation Perturbation-based EDA Method to CMA Ensemble Forecasting 应用气象学报 convective-allowing ensemble forecast observation perturbation ensemble data assimilation |
| title | Application of Observation Perturbation-based EDA Method to CMA Ensemble Forecasting |
| title_full | Application of Observation Perturbation-based EDA Method to CMA Ensemble Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Application of Observation Perturbation-based EDA Method to CMA Ensemble Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Application of Observation Perturbation-based EDA Method to CMA Ensemble Forecasting |
| title_short | Application of Observation Perturbation-based EDA Method to CMA Ensemble Forecasting |
| title_sort | application of observation perturbation based eda method to cma ensemble forecasting |
| topic | convective-allowing ensemble forecast observation perturbation ensemble data assimilation |
| url | http://qikan.camscma.cn/en/article/doi/10.11898/1001-7313.20250201 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhanghanbin applicationofobservationperturbationbasededamethodtocmaensembleforecasting AT xiayu applicationofobservationperturbationbasededamethodtocmaensembleforecasting AT caoyajie applicationofobservationperturbationbasededamethodtocmaensembleforecasting |