Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges
Abstract Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0 |
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| _version_ | 1849726122059628544 |
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| author | Kate Dooley Kirstine Lund Christiansen Jens Friis Lund Wim Carton Alister Self |
| author_facet | Kate Dooley Kirstine Lund Christiansen Jens Friis Lund Wim Carton Alister Self |
| author_sort | Kate Dooley |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses. We analyse how this demand for land is distributed geographically and over time. The results are concerning, both in terms of the aggregate area of land, but also the rate and extent of land use change. Our findings demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land and the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation. This adds another layer to the observed shortcomings of national climate pledges and indicates a need for more transparency around the role of land in national climate mitigation plans. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a998b43bde924bc3a8b003ac2eef391c |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-a998b43bde924bc3a8b003ac2eef391c2025-08-20T03:10:17ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-10-0115111010.1038/s41467-024-53466-0Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledgesKate Dooley0Kirstine Lund Christiansen1Jens Friis Lund2Wim Carton3Alister Self4School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of MelbourneDepartment of Food and Resource Economics, University of CopenhagenDepartment of Food and Resource Economics, University of CopenhagenCentre for Sustainability Studies, Lund UniversitySchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of MelbourneAbstract Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses. We analyse how this demand for land is distributed geographically and over time. The results are concerning, both in terms of the aggregate area of land, but also the rate and extent of land use change. Our findings demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land and the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation. This adds another layer to the observed shortcomings of national climate pledges and indicates a need for more transparency around the role of land in national climate mitigation plans.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0 |
| spellingShingle | Kate Dooley Kirstine Lund Christiansen Jens Friis Lund Wim Carton Alister Self Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges Nature Communications |
| title | Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges |
| title_full | Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges |
| title_fullStr | Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges |
| title_full_unstemmed | Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges |
| title_short | Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges |
| title_sort | over reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net zero climate pledges |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0 |
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