Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions
Abstract Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non‐Gaussian. Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple kinematic model for atmospheric mid‐latitude temperature variability based on symmetric a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111626 |
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| author | Keiko Kircher Cristian Proistosescu Ryan L. Sriver |
| author_facet | Keiko Kircher Cristian Proistosescu Ryan L. Sriver |
| author_sort | Keiko Kircher |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non‐Gaussian. Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple kinematic model for atmospheric mid‐latitude temperature variability based on symmetric advection from a non‐symmetric background temperature profile. We then use this model to derive analytical expressions for the higher order moments of temperature distributions. Our results show that nonzero skewness and kurtosis arise due to the nonlinearity of the time‐mean meridional temperature profile. The analytical model matches an idealized Held‐Suarez atmospheric model, indicating nonlinearity of time‐mean temperature in latitude is the dominant contribution to nonzero skewness and kurtosis in synoptic temperature variations. Model analysis further shows decrease in higher order moments due to climate change come roughly equally from changes in mixing length and changes in the background temperature profiles. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a8fe59daeadc4585a94f64373376d584 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-a8fe59daeadc4585a94f64373376d5842025-08-20T02:06:28ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-02-01523n/an/a10.1029/2024GL111626Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature DistributionsKeiko Kircher0Cristian Proistosescu1Ryan L. Sriver2Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Champaign IL USADepartment of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Champaign IL USADepartment of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Champaign IL USAAbstract Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non‐Gaussian. Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple kinematic model for atmospheric mid‐latitude temperature variability based on symmetric advection from a non‐symmetric background temperature profile. We then use this model to derive analytical expressions for the higher order moments of temperature distributions. Our results show that nonzero skewness and kurtosis arise due to the nonlinearity of the time‐mean meridional temperature profile. The analytical model matches an idealized Held‐Suarez atmospheric model, indicating nonlinearity of time‐mean temperature in latitude is the dominant contribution to nonzero skewness and kurtosis in synoptic temperature variations. Model analysis further shows decrease in higher order moments due to climate change come roughly equally from changes in mixing length and changes in the background temperature profiles.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111626statistical momentsskewnesskurtosisanalyticalstochasticextreme temperature |
| spellingShingle | Keiko Kircher Cristian Proistosescu Ryan L. Sriver Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions Geophysical Research Letters statistical moments skewness kurtosis analytical stochastic extreme temperature |
| title | Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions |
| title_full | Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions |
| title_fullStr | Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions |
| title_short | Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions |
| title_sort | analytical model for the higher order moments of midlatitude atmospheric temperature distributions |
| topic | statistical moments skewness kurtosis analytical stochastic extreme temperature |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111626 |
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