Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies
<p>Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), as a possible supplement to emission reduction, has the potential to reduce some of the impacts associated with climate change. However, the outcomes will depend on how it is deployed: not just how much but also the latitudes of injection and the dist...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1325/2025/esd-16-1325-2025.pdf |
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| author | E. Brody Y. Zhang D. G. MacMartin D. Visioni B. Kravitz B. Kravitz E. M. Bednarz E. M. Bednarz E. M. Bednarz |
| author_facet | E. Brody Y. Zhang D. G. MacMartin D. Visioni B. Kravitz B. Kravitz E. M. Bednarz E. M. Bednarz E. M. Bednarz |
| author_sort | E. Brody |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), as a possible supplement to emission reduction, has the potential to reduce some of the impacts associated with climate change. However, the outcomes will depend on how it is deployed: not just how much but also the latitudes of injection and the distribution of injection rates across those latitudes. Different such strategies have been proposed, for example, managing up to three climate metrics simultaneously by injecting at multiple latitudes. Nonetheless, these strategies still do not fully compensate for the pattern of climate changes caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations, creating a novel climate state. To date there has not been a systematic assessment of whether there are strategies that could do a better job of managing some specific climate goals, nor an assessment of any underlying trade-offs between managing different sets of climate goals. Herein we use existing climate model simulations of the response to injection at seven different latitudes and apply optimization tools to explore the limitations and trade-offs when designing strategies that combine injection across these latitudes. This relies on linearity being a sufficiently good assumption, which we first validate. The resulting “best” strategy of course depends on what goals are being optimized for. For example, at 1 °C of cooling, we predict that there exist strategies that do a better job than those simulated to date at simultaneously balancing regional temperature and precipitation responses, but the differences may be too small to detect at lower levels of cooling.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a8c93cff70b84e4fbb6dfdfd61ace845 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-a8c93cff70b84e4fbb6dfdfd61ace8452025-08-20T03:35:54ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872025-08-01161325134110.5194/esd-16-1325-2025Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategiesE. Brody0Y. Zhang1D. G. MacMartin2D. Visioni3B. Kravitz4B. Kravitz5E. M. Bednarz6E. M. Bednarz7E. M. Bednarz8Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USASibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USASibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USADepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USAEarth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USAAtmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USASibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USACooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USANOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA<p>Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), as a possible supplement to emission reduction, has the potential to reduce some of the impacts associated with climate change. However, the outcomes will depend on how it is deployed: not just how much but also the latitudes of injection and the distribution of injection rates across those latitudes. Different such strategies have been proposed, for example, managing up to three climate metrics simultaneously by injecting at multiple latitudes. Nonetheless, these strategies still do not fully compensate for the pattern of climate changes caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations, creating a novel climate state. To date there has not been a systematic assessment of whether there are strategies that could do a better job of managing some specific climate goals, nor an assessment of any underlying trade-offs between managing different sets of climate goals. Herein we use existing climate model simulations of the response to injection at seven different latitudes and apply optimization tools to explore the limitations and trade-offs when designing strategies that combine injection across these latitudes. This relies on linearity being a sufficiently good assumption, which we first validate. The resulting “best” strategy of course depends on what goals are being optimized for. For example, at 1 °C of cooling, we predict that there exist strategies that do a better job than those simulated to date at simultaneously balancing regional temperature and precipitation responses, but the differences may be too small to detect at lower levels of cooling.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1325/2025/esd-16-1325-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. Brody Y. Zhang D. G. MacMartin D. Visioni B. Kravitz B. Kravitz E. M. Bednarz E. M. Bednarz E. M. Bednarz Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies |
| title_full | Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies |
| title_fullStr | Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies |
| title_short | Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies |
| title_sort | using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1325/2025/esd-16-1325-2025.pdf |
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