Analytic Evaluation of the Statistical Power of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration Tests

The planning of reliability demonstration tests is a typical task for reliability engineers. To find the optimum test plan, many different scenarios must be considered and compared. Comparing test plans by their estimation variance has several disadvantages, as it only considers the type I error. To...

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Main Authors: Philipp Mell, Martin Dazer
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IEEE 2025-01-01
Series:IEEE Access
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Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11026920/
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author Philipp Mell
Martin Dazer
author_facet Philipp Mell
Martin Dazer
author_sort Philipp Mell
collection DOAJ
description The planning of reliability demonstration tests is a typical task for reliability engineers. To find the optimum test plan, many different scenarios must be considered and compared. Comparing test plans by their estimation variance has several disadvantages, as it only considers the type I error. To overcome these disadvantages, the probability of successfully demonstrating a lifetime target is used to implement a statistical power analysis for test plans from a practical perspective. Typically, this is done through simulation based on existing knowledge about the relevant failure mechanism. Such simulations are inadequate for real-world applications, mostly as their are computationally demanding. To enable wide applicability of optimal test planning methods based on the probability of test success, an analytic approach is presented in this paper. The simulation is replaced with an approximation of the stochastical distribution of the test results. The analytic method consists of two steps. First, the expected mean and covariance of the maximum likelihood estimates for a given Weibull distribution with an integrated lifetime model are derived by using pivotal quantities. Second, the delta method is applied to describe the lifetime demonstrated with a particular test plan. The method is compared against simulation results, showing an average error of 1.3&#x2013;<inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$1.7~\%$ </tex-math></inline-formula>.
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spelling doaj-art-a8aa633c745c4d19bbad21153af093a12025-08-20T03:20:29ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362025-01-0113998929991010.1109/ACCESS.2025.357736611026920Analytic Evaluation of the Statistical Power of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration TestsPhilipp Mell0https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8474-6392Martin Dazer1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5314-5874Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, GermanyInstitute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, GermanyThe planning of reliability demonstration tests is a typical task for reliability engineers. To find the optimum test plan, many different scenarios must be considered and compared. Comparing test plans by their estimation variance has several disadvantages, as it only considers the type I error. To overcome these disadvantages, the probability of successfully demonstrating a lifetime target is used to implement a statistical power analysis for test plans from a practical perspective. Typically, this is done through simulation based on existing knowledge about the relevant failure mechanism. Such simulations are inadequate for real-world applications, mostly as their are computationally demanding. To enable wide applicability of optimal test planning methods based on the probability of test success, an analytic approach is presented in this paper. The simulation is replaced with an approximation of the stochastical distribution of the test results. The analytic method consists of two steps. First, the expected mean and covariance of the maximum likelihood estimates for a given Weibull distribution with an integrated lifetime model are derived by using pivotal quantities. Second, the delta method is applied to describe the lifetime demonstrated with a particular test plan. The method is compared against simulation results, showing an average error of 1.3&#x2013;<inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$1.7~\%$ </tex-math></inline-formula>.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11026920/Reliability demonstrationreliability test planningstatistical power analysisaccelerated life testingtest planoptimal design
spellingShingle Philipp Mell
Martin Dazer
Analytic Evaluation of the Statistical Power of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration Tests
IEEE Access
Reliability demonstration
reliability test planning
statistical power analysis
accelerated life testing
test plan
optimal design
title Analytic Evaluation of the Statistical Power of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration Tests
title_full Analytic Evaluation of the Statistical Power of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration Tests
title_fullStr Analytic Evaluation of the Statistical Power of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration Tests
title_full_unstemmed Analytic Evaluation of the Statistical Power of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration Tests
title_short Analytic Evaluation of the Statistical Power of Accelerated Reliability Demonstration Tests
title_sort analytic evaluation of the statistical power of accelerated reliability demonstration tests
topic Reliability demonstration
reliability test planning
statistical power analysis
accelerated life testing
test plan
optimal design
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11026920/
work_keys_str_mv AT philippmell analyticevaluationofthestatisticalpowerofacceleratedreliabilitydemonstrationtests
AT martindazer analyticevaluationofthestatisticalpowerofacceleratedreliabilitydemonstrationtests