Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau
Abstract Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has profound impacts on hydrological processes, yet the responses of permafrost hydrology to different climate forcings remain unclear. Here we integrate outputs from global climate models with a watershed cryospheric‐hydrological model to...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113679 |
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| author | Pei Fang Taihua Wang Dawen Yang Jingjing Yang Lihua Tang |
| author_facet | Pei Fang Taihua Wang Dawen Yang Jingjing Yang Lihua Tang |
| author_sort | Pei Fang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has profound impacts on hydrological processes, yet the responses of permafrost hydrology to different climate forcings remain unclear. Here we integrate outputs from global climate models with a watershed cryospheric‐hydrological model to provide the first quantitative attribution analysis to examine the responses of permafrost hydrology to anthropogenic and natural forcings in the source region of the Yellow River, northeastern TP. Our results confidently attribute frozen ground degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), leading to permafrost area decline by 3,398.4 km2/10a during 1960–2019, while aerosols exhibit a slight mitigating effect. GHG emissions also drive concomitant hydrological changes, including increased subsurface runoff and winter runoff ratio. They also reduce streamflow seasonality, particularly in regions where permafrost degrades severely. Our study provides critical insights for understanding permafrost and hydrological processes under climate change, highlighting the importance of effective emission reduction and adaptive water resources management strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a8508d9e0d5e4c598feac336cd767cfd |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-a8508d9e0d5e4c598feac336cd767cfd2025-08-20T02:05:13ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-05-015210n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113679Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan PlateauPei Fang0Taihua Wang1Dawen Yang2Jingjing Yang3Lihua Tang4State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing ChinaAbstract Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has profound impacts on hydrological processes, yet the responses of permafrost hydrology to different climate forcings remain unclear. Here we integrate outputs from global climate models with a watershed cryospheric‐hydrological model to provide the first quantitative attribution analysis to examine the responses of permafrost hydrology to anthropogenic and natural forcings in the source region of the Yellow River, northeastern TP. Our results confidently attribute frozen ground degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), leading to permafrost area decline by 3,398.4 km2/10a during 1960–2019, while aerosols exhibit a slight mitigating effect. GHG emissions also drive concomitant hydrological changes, including increased subsurface runoff and winter runoff ratio. They also reduce streamflow seasonality, particularly in regions where permafrost degrades severely. Our study provides critical insights for understanding permafrost and hydrological processes under climate change, highlighting the importance of effective emission reduction and adaptive water resources management strategies.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113679permafrost degradationhydrological changesTibetan plateauclimate changedetection and attribution |
| spellingShingle | Pei Fang Taihua Wang Dawen Yang Jingjing Yang Lihua Tang Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau Geophysical Research Letters permafrost degradation hydrological changes Tibetan plateau climate change detection and attribution |
| title | Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau |
| title_full | Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau |
| title_fullStr | Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau |
| title_full_unstemmed | Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau |
| title_short | Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau |
| title_sort | permafrost degradation and concomitant hydrological changes dominated by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the northeastern tibetan plateau |
| topic | permafrost degradation hydrological changes Tibetan plateau climate change detection and attribution |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113679 |
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