Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
It is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, behave in a chaotic fashion. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau–Ginzburg model, which on its own allows for predicting that the ES evolves, through regular trajectories...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Evolving Earth |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950117225000044 |
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| author | A.E. Bernardini O. Bertolami F. Francisco |
| author_facet | A.E. Bernardini O. Bertolami F. Francisco |
| author_sort | A.E. Bernardini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | It is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, behave in a chaotic fashion. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau–Ginzburg model, which on its own allows for predicting that the ES evolves, through regular trajectories in the phase space, towards a Hothouse Earth scenario for a finite amount of human-driven impact. Furthermore, we find that the equilibrium point for temperature fluctuations can exhibit bifurcations and a chaotic pattern if the human impact follows a logistic map. Our final analysis includes interactions between different terms of the planetary boundaries (PB) in order to gauge the predictability of our model. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a7f47029cc6d4aed939167fa40025896 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2950-1172 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Evolving Earth |
| spelling | doaj-art-a7f47029cc6d4aed939167fa400258962025-01-28T04:15:03ZengElsevierEvolving Earth2950-11722025-01-013100060Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the AnthropoceneA.E. Bernardini0O. Bertolami1F. Francisco2Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, PO Box 676, 13565-905, São Carlos, SP, Brazil; Departamento de Física e Astronomia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 687, 4169-007, Porto, Portugal; Corresponding author at: Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, PO Box 676, 13565-905, São Carlos, SP, Brazil.Departamento de Física e Astronomia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 687, 4169-007, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Física das Universidades do Minho e do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre s/n, 4169-007, Porto, PortugalDepartamento de Física e Astronomia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 687, 4169-007, Porto, PortugalIt is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, behave in a chaotic fashion. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau–Ginzburg model, which on its own allows for predicting that the ES evolves, through regular trajectories in the phase space, towards a Hothouse Earth scenario for a finite amount of human-driven impact. Furthermore, we find that the equilibrium point for temperature fluctuations can exhibit bifurcations and a chaotic pattern if the human impact follows a logistic map. Our final analysis includes interactions between different terms of the planetary boundaries (PB) in order to gauge the predictability of our model.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950117225000044AnthropoceneEarth SystemPlanetary boundariesChaosLogistic map |
| spellingShingle | A.E. Bernardini O. Bertolami F. Francisco Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene Evolving Earth Anthropocene Earth System Planetary boundaries Chaos Logistic map |
| title | Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene |
| title_full | Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene |
| title_fullStr | Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene |
| title_full_unstemmed | Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene |
| title_short | Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene |
| title_sort | chaotic behaviour of the earth system in the anthropocene |
| topic | Anthropocene Earth System Planetary boundaries Chaos Logistic map |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950117225000044 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aebernardini chaoticbehaviouroftheearthsystemintheanthropocene AT obertolami chaoticbehaviouroftheearthsystemintheanthropocene AT ffrancisco chaoticbehaviouroftheearthsystemintheanthropocene |