Common and Distinct Drivers of Convective Mass Flux and Walker Circulation Changes
Abstract The weakening of convective mass flux and the Walker circulation is one of the most robust responses to global warming. However, recent decades have seen the Pacific Walker circulation strengthen despite a weakening convective mass flux. Here, we conduct a series of prescribed sea surface t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111897 |
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| author | Sarah M. Kang Masahiro Watanabe Veronika Gayler |
| author_facet | Sarah M. Kang Masahiro Watanabe Veronika Gayler |
| author_sort | Sarah M. Kang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The weakening of convective mass flux and the Walker circulation is one of the most robust responses to global warming. However, recent decades have seen the Pacific Walker circulation strengthen despite a weakening convective mass flux. Here, we conduct a series of prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) experiments to separate the effects of global warming from changes in SST patterns. The tropical‐mean convective mass flux weakens in proportion to the global warming amplitude, largely unaffected by SST pattern changes. Conversely, the Walker circulation response is sensitive to SST pattern changes, weakening with global warming if zonal SST contrast decreases or increases below a certain threshold and strengthening if the increase in SST contrast exceeds that threshold. Thus, the Walker circulation might continue to strengthen if the SST pattern effects dominate. Our results indicate that the weakening of convective mass flux alone is insufficient for projecting the Walker circulation response. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a7d69d458f4d4d4f9ba04c34dfddeaf7 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-a7d69d458f4d4d4f9ba04c34dfddeaf72025-08-20T02:31:09ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-02-01524n/an/a10.1029/2024GL111897Common and Distinct Drivers of Convective Mass Flux and Walker Circulation ChangesSarah M. Kang0Masahiro Watanabe1Veronika Gayler2Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg GermanyAtmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo Kashiwa JapanMax Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg GermanyAbstract The weakening of convective mass flux and the Walker circulation is one of the most robust responses to global warming. However, recent decades have seen the Pacific Walker circulation strengthen despite a weakening convective mass flux. Here, we conduct a series of prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) experiments to separate the effects of global warming from changes in SST patterns. The tropical‐mean convective mass flux weakens in proportion to the global warming amplitude, largely unaffected by SST pattern changes. Conversely, the Walker circulation response is sensitive to SST pattern changes, weakening with global warming if zonal SST contrast decreases or increases below a certain threshold and strengthening if the increase in SST contrast exceeds that threshold. Thus, the Walker circulation might continue to strengthen if the SST pattern effects dominate. Our results indicate that the weakening of convective mass flux alone is insufficient for projecting the Walker circulation response.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111897convective mass fluxWalker circulationglobal warmingSST pattern |
| spellingShingle | Sarah M. Kang Masahiro Watanabe Veronika Gayler Common and Distinct Drivers of Convective Mass Flux and Walker Circulation Changes Geophysical Research Letters convective mass flux Walker circulation global warming SST pattern |
| title | Common and Distinct Drivers of Convective Mass Flux and Walker Circulation Changes |
| title_full | Common and Distinct Drivers of Convective Mass Flux and Walker Circulation Changes |
| title_fullStr | Common and Distinct Drivers of Convective Mass Flux and Walker Circulation Changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Common and Distinct Drivers of Convective Mass Flux and Walker Circulation Changes |
| title_short | Common and Distinct Drivers of Convective Mass Flux and Walker Circulation Changes |
| title_sort | common and distinct drivers of convective mass flux and walker circulation changes |
| topic | convective mass flux Walker circulation global warming SST pattern |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111897 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sarahmkang commonanddistinctdriversofconvectivemassfluxandwalkercirculationchanges AT masahirowatanabe commonanddistinctdriversofconvectivemassfluxandwalkercirculationchanges AT veronikagayler commonanddistinctdriversofconvectivemassfluxandwalkercirculationchanges |