Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions
Abstract Tropical cyclone risks are expected to increase with climate change. One such risk is extreme ocean waves generated by surface winds from these systems. We use synthetic databases of both historical (1980-2017) and future (2015-2050) tropical cyclone tracks to generate wind fields and force...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-82892-9 |
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| author | Guisela Grossmann-Matheson Ian R. Young Alberto Meucci Jose-Henrique Alves |
| author_facet | Guisela Grossmann-Matheson Ian R. Young Alberto Meucci Jose-Henrique Alves |
| author_sort | Guisela Grossmann-Matheson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Tropical cyclone risks are expected to increase with climate change. One such risk is extreme ocean waves generated by surface winds from these systems. We use synthetic databases of both historical (1980-2017) and future (2015-2050) tropical cyclone tracks to generate wind fields and force a computationally efficient wave model to estimate significant wave heights across all global tropical cyclone basins. These data are then used to estimate 1 in 100-year return period significant wave height for both the historical period and the future under an SSP585 high emissions scenario. The results show that by 2050, there are projected increases in 100-year significant wave height of up to 1.5 m (10%) in the Eastern and Western Pacific, South Indian and South Pacific Ocean basins. The North Atlantic basin shows no consistent trend, whilst the North Indian basin (particularly the Bay of Bengal) shows a statistically significant decrease in extreme significant wave height. The results represent the first attempt to quantify the magnitude of expected changes in extreme wave height conditions generated by extreme tropical cyclones across all tropical cyclone basins. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a71fc781f5924e658c4c459e5318c224 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-a71fc781f5924e658c4c459e5318c2242025-01-05T12:24:56ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-12-0114111410.1038/s41598-024-82892-9Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditionsGuisela Grossmann-Matheson0Ian R. Young1Alberto Meucci2Jose-Henrique Alves3Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of MelbourneDepartment of Infrastructure Engineering, University of MelbourneDepartment of Infrastructure Engineering, University of MelbourneWeather Program Office, Ocean and Atmospheric Research, NOAAAbstract Tropical cyclone risks are expected to increase with climate change. One such risk is extreme ocean waves generated by surface winds from these systems. We use synthetic databases of both historical (1980-2017) and future (2015-2050) tropical cyclone tracks to generate wind fields and force a computationally efficient wave model to estimate significant wave heights across all global tropical cyclone basins. These data are then used to estimate 1 in 100-year return period significant wave height for both the historical period and the future under an SSP585 high emissions scenario. The results show that by 2050, there are projected increases in 100-year significant wave height of up to 1.5 m (10%) in the Eastern and Western Pacific, South Indian and South Pacific Ocean basins. The North Atlantic basin shows no consistent trend, whilst the North Indian basin (particularly the Bay of Bengal) shows a statistically significant decrease in extreme significant wave height. The results represent the first attempt to quantify the magnitude of expected changes in extreme wave height conditions generated by extreme tropical cyclones across all tropical cyclone basins.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-82892-9 |
| spellingShingle | Guisela Grossmann-Matheson Ian R. Young Alberto Meucci Jose-Henrique Alves Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions Scientific Reports |
| title | Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions |
| title_full | Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions |
| title_fullStr | Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions |
| title_short | Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions |
| title_sort | global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-82892-9 |
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