The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions
Abstract Background In response to the rapid global transmission of COVID-19, governments worldwide enacted lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to control the disease. In this study, we aim to quantify the influence of NPIs on the transmission of COVID-19 within selected Europ...
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BMC
2025-03-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22239-9 |
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| author | Carlo Delfin S. Estadilla Chiara Cicolani Rubén Blasco-Aguado Fernando Saldaña Alessandro Borri Javier Mar Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck Oliver Ibarrondo Nico Stollenwerk Maíra Aguiar |
| author_facet | Carlo Delfin S. Estadilla Chiara Cicolani Rubén Blasco-Aguado Fernando Saldaña Alessandro Borri Javier Mar Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck Oliver Ibarrondo Nico Stollenwerk Maíra Aguiar |
| author_sort | Carlo Delfin S. Estadilla |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background In response to the rapid global transmission of COVID-19, governments worldwide enacted lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to control the disease. In this study, we aim to quantify the influence of NPIs on the transmission of COVID-19 within selected European regions, specifically Spain (including the Basque Country) and Italy (including Tuscany), during the period of February to December 2020, which predates the initiation of COVID-19 vaccinations. We investigate potential correlations and associations between the implementation of NPIs, changes in COVID-19 transmission rates, and alterations in life expectancy across different age and sex categories from the year 2019 to 2020. Methods We use a Susceptible-Hospitalized-Asymptomatic/Mild-Recovered-Deceased (SHARD) ordinary differential equations model to analyze COVID-19 dynamics in the studied regions. The model calibration process was performed with empirical data on hospitalization and death to estimate the weekly transmission and death rates. To quantify reductions in life expectancy, we used established survival analysis techniques. Results The SHARD model effectively captures multiple waves of COVID-19, accurately representing peaks and aligning with the instantaneous reproduction number. Our analysis reveals a 66-78% reduction in transmission rates during the initial set of NPIs in March 2020, followed by a 34-55% reduction during the subsequent NPIs in October 2020. Additionally, the elderly and individuals with comorbidities experienced the most pronounced reductions in life expectancy. Conclusions Our model calibration approach provides a valuable tool for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions across multiple waves of an epidemic. By applying this method to COVID-19 dynamics, we have demonstrated the capacity to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on transmission rates. These findings offer practical insights into the effectiveness of NPIs in mitigating COVID-19 spread and contribute to the broader understanding of epidemic control strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a639a2bfe1c64454a2ef9c13ea199cae |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-a639a2bfe1c64454a2ef9c13ea199cae2025-08-20T02:56:21ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582025-03-0125112110.1186/s12889-025-22239-9The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regionsCarlo Delfin S. Estadilla0Chiara Cicolani1Rubén Blasco-Aguado2Fernando Saldaña3Alessandro Borri4Javier Mar5Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck6Oliver Ibarrondo7Nico Stollenwerk8Maíra Aguiar9BCAM-Basque Center for Applied MathematicsBCAM-Basque Center for Applied MathematicsBCAM-Basque Center for Applied MathematicsBCAM-Basque Center for Applied MathematicsUniversità degli studi dell’AquilaOsakidetza Basque Health ServicePublic Health Directorate, Basque Health DepartmentOsakidetza Basque Health ServiceBCAM-Basque Center for Applied MathematicsBCAM-Basque Center for Applied MathematicsAbstract Background In response to the rapid global transmission of COVID-19, governments worldwide enacted lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to control the disease. In this study, we aim to quantify the influence of NPIs on the transmission of COVID-19 within selected European regions, specifically Spain (including the Basque Country) and Italy (including Tuscany), during the period of February to December 2020, which predates the initiation of COVID-19 vaccinations. We investigate potential correlations and associations between the implementation of NPIs, changes in COVID-19 transmission rates, and alterations in life expectancy across different age and sex categories from the year 2019 to 2020. Methods We use a Susceptible-Hospitalized-Asymptomatic/Mild-Recovered-Deceased (SHARD) ordinary differential equations model to analyze COVID-19 dynamics in the studied regions. The model calibration process was performed with empirical data on hospitalization and death to estimate the weekly transmission and death rates. To quantify reductions in life expectancy, we used established survival analysis techniques. Results The SHARD model effectively captures multiple waves of COVID-19, accurately representing peaks and aligning with the instantaneous reproduction number. Our analysis reveals a 66-78% reduction in transmission rates during the initial set of NPIs in March 2020, followed by a 34-55% reduction during the subsequent NPIs in October 2020. Additionally, the elderly and individuals with comorbidities experienced the most pronounced reductions in life expectancy. Conclusions Our model calibration approach provides a valuable tool for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions across multiple waves of an epidemic. By applying this method to COVID-19 dynamics, we have demonstrated the capacity to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on transmission rates. These findings offer practical insights into the effectiveness of NPIs in mitigating COVID-19 spread and contribute to the broader understanding of epidemic control strategies.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22239-9COVID-19LockdownNon-pharmaceutical interventionsNPIsEpidemiological modelsEffective reproduction number |
| spellingShingle | Carlo Delfin S. Estadilla Chiara Cicolani Rubén Blasco-Aguado Fernando Saldaña Alessandro Borri Javier Mar Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck Oliver Ibarrondo Nico Stollenwerk Maíra Aguiar The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions BMC Public Health COVID-19 Lockdown Non-pharmaceutical interventions NPIs Epidemiological models Effective reproduction number |
| title | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions |
| title_full | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions |
| title_fullStr | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions |
| title_short | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions |
| title_sort | impact of non pharmaceutical interventions on covid 19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two european regions |
| topic | COVID-19 Lockdown Non-pharmaceutical interventions NPIs Epidemiological models Effective reproduction number |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-22239-9 |
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