Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?
This paper investigates the macroeconomic interplay of income, inflation, investment, and import-dependence (the 4Is) in import-dependent countries, comparing trends from 1966–1999 to 2000–2022. Using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analytical framework, it identifies empirical relations...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Cogent Economics & Finance |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2524575 |
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| author | Deodat E. Adenutsi Christian R.K. Ahortor Johnson W. Ahiadorme |
| author_facet | Deodat E. Adenutsi Christian R.K. Ahortor Johnson W. Ahiadorme |
| author_sort | Deodat E. Adenutsi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper investigates the macroeconomic interplay of income, inflation, investment, and import-dependence (the 4Is) in import-dependent countries, comparing trends from 1966–1999 to 2000–2022. Using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analytical framework, it identifies empirical relationships among the 4Is over two periods: pre-Millennium era (1966–1999) and the Millennium era (2000–2022). It reveals a nuanced interaction where import dependency detrimentally affects investment alongside neutral income growth and inflation effects, especially in the Millennium era. Results suggest monetary policy and supply-side reforms could enhance economic stability and growth, calling for reduced import reliance, controlled inflation, and incentivised domestic production to bolster long-term economic prosperity in these countries. It emphasises the post-2000 shift towards more stable macroeconomic environments and decreased import dependence, reflecting global economic changes and policy shifts towards inflation targeting. Policy recommendations focus on managing inflation, boosting domestic production, and fostering investment to mitigate the negative impacts of import dependence and support sustainable economic growth. The study contributes empirical evidence highlighting the vulnerability of such economies to imported inflation and the consequences of heavy import reliance, such as diminished production and lower income. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a626166db2b24740ab28d46a3cf33e77 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2332-2039 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cogent Economics & Finance |
| spelling | doaj-art-a626166db2b24740ab28d46a3cf33e772025-08-20T03:24:27ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Economics & Finance2332-20392025-12-0113110.1080/23322039.2025.2524575Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?Deodat E. Adenutsi0Christian R.K. Ahortor1Johnson W. Ahiadorme2Department of Accounting and Finance, HTU Business School, Ho Technical University, Ho, GhanaDepartment of Research, Bank of Ghana Cedi House Office, Accra, GhanaMacroeconomics Division, Ghana Statistical Service, Accra, GhanaThis paper investigates the macroeconomic interplay of income, inflation, investment, and import-dependence (the 4Is) in import-dependent countries, comparing trends from 1966–1999 to 2000–2022. Using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analytical framework, it identifies empirical relationships among the 4Is over two periods: pre-Millennium era (1966–1999) and the Millennium era (2000–2022). It reveals a nuanced interaction where import dependency detrimentally affects investment alongside neutral income growth and inflation effects, especially in the Millennium era. Results suggest monetary policy and supply-side reforms could enhance economic stability and growth, calling for reduced import reliance, controlled inflation, and incentivised domestic production to bolster long-term economic prosperity in these countries. It emphasises the post-2000 shift towards more stable macroeconomic environments and decreased import dependence, reflecting global economic changes and policy shifts towards inflation targeting. Policy recommendations focus on managing inflation, boosting domestic production, and fostering investment to mitigate the negative impacts of import dependence and support sustainable economic growth. The study contributes empirical evidence highlighting the vulnerability of such economies to imported inflation and the consequences of heavy import reliance, such as diminished production and lower income.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2524575Inflationinvestmentincomeimport dependencepanel ARDL modelMacroeconomics |
| spellingShingle | Deodat E. Adenutsi Christian R.K. Ahortor Johnson W. Ahiadorme Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present? Cogent Economics & Finance Inflation investment income import dependence panel ARDL model Macroeconomics |
| title | Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present? |
| title_full | Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present? |
| title_fullStr | Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present? |
| title_short | Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present? |
| title_sort | macroeconomic dynamics and the long run equilibrium analysis of the 4is in import dependent countries how is the past different from the present |
| topic | Inflation investment income import dependence panel ARDL model Macroeconomics |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2524575 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT deodateadenutsi macroeconomicdynamicsandthelongrunequilibriumanalysisofthe4isinimportdependentcountrieshowisthepastdifferentfromthepresent AT christianrkahortor macroeconomicdynamicsandthelongrunequilibriumanalysisofthe4isinimportdependentcountrieshowisthepastdifferentfromthepresent AT johnsonwahiadorme macroeconomicdynamicsandthelongrunequilibriumanalysisofthe4isinimportdependentcountrieshowisthepastdifferentfromthepresent |