Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?

This paper investigates the macroeconomic interplay of income, inflation, investment, and import-dependence (the 4Is) in import-dependent countries, comparing trends from 1966–1999 to 2000–2022. Using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analytical framework, it identifies empirical relations...

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Main Authors: Deodat E. Adenutsi, Christian R.K. Ahortor, Johnson W. Ahiadorme
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2025-12-01
Series:Cogent Economics & Finance
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2524575
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author Deodat E. Adenutsi
Christian R.K. Ahortor
Johnson W. Ahiadorme
author_facet Deodat E. Adenutsi
Christian R.K. Ahortor
Johnson W. Ahiadorme
author_sort Deodat E. Adenutsi
collection DOAJ
description This paper investigates the macroeconomic interplay of income, inflation, investment, and import-dependence (the 4Is) in import-dependent countries, comparing trends from 1966–1999 to 2000–2022. Using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analytical framework, it identifies empirical relationships among the 4Is over two periods: pre-Millennium era (1966–1999) and the Millennium era (2000–2022). It reveals a nuanced interaction where import dependency detrimentally affects investment alongside neutral income growth and inflation effects, especially in the Millennium era. Results suggest monetary policy and supply-side reforms could enhance economic stability and growth, calling for reduced import reliance, controlled inflation, and incentivised domestic production to bolster long-term economic prosperity in these countries. It emphasises the post-2000 shift towards more stable macroeconomic environments and decreased import dependence, reflecting global economic changes and policy shifts towards inflation targeting. Policy recommendations focus on managing inflation, boosting domestic production, and fostering investment to mitigate the negative impacts of import dependence and support sustainable economic growth. The study contributes empirical evidence highlighting the vulnerability of such economies to imported inflation and the consequences of heavy import reliance, such as diminished production and lower income.
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spelling doaj-art-a626166db2b24740ab28d46a3cf33e772025-08-20T03:24:27ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Economics & Finance2332-20392025-12-0113110.1080/23322039.2025.2524575Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?Deodat E. Adenutsi0Christian R.K. Ahortor1Johnson W. Ahiadorme2Department of Accounting and Finance, HTU Business School, Ho Technical University, Ho, GhanaDepartment of Research, Bank of Ghana Cedi House Office, Accra, GhanaMacroeconomics Division, Ghana Statistical Service, Accra, GhanaThis paper investigates the macroeconomic interplay of income, inflation, investment, and import-dependence (the 4Is) in import-dependent countries, comparing trends from 1966–1999 to 2000–2022. Using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analytical framework, it identifies empirical relationships among the 4Is over two periods: pre-Millennium era (1966–1999) and the Millennium era (2000–2022). It reveals a nuanced interaction where import dependency detrimentally affects investment alongside neutral income growth and inflation effects, especially in the Millennium era. Results suggest monetary policy and supply-side reforms could enhance economic stability and growth, calling for reduced import reliance, controlled inflation, and incentivised domestic production to bolster long-term economic prosperity in these countries. It emphasises the post-2000 shift towards more stable macroeconomic environments and decreased import dependence, reflecting global economic changes and policy shifts towards inflation targeting. Policy recommendations focus on managing inflation, boosting domestic production, and fostering investment to mitigate the negative impacts of import dependence and support sustainable economic growth. The study contributes empirical evidence highlighting the vulnerability of such economies to imported inflation and the consequences of heavy import reliance, such as diminished production and lower income.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2524575Inflationinvestmentincomeimport dependencepanel ARDL modelMacroeconomics
spellingShingle Deodat E. Adenutsi
Christian R.K. Ahortor
Johnson W. Ahiadorme
Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?
Cogent Economics & Finance
Inflation
investment
income
import dependence
panel ARDL model
Macroeconomics
title Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?
title_full Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?
title_fullStr Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?
title_full_unstemmed Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?
title_short Macroeconomic dynamics and the long-run equilibrium analysis of the 4Is in import-dependent countries: how is the past different from the present?
title_sort macroeconomic dynamics and the long run equilibrium analysis of the 4is in import dependent countries how is the past different from the present
topic Inflation
investment
income
import dependence
panel ARDL model
Macroeconomics
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2524575
work_keys_str_mv AT deodateadenutsi macroeconomicdynamicsandthelongrunequilibriumanalysisofthe4isinimportdependentcountrieshowisthepastdifferentfromthepresent
AT christianrkahortor macroeconomicdynamicsandthelongrunequilibriumanalysisofthe4isinimportdependentcountrieshowisthepastdifferentfromthepresent
AT johnsonwahiadorme macroeconomicdynamicsandthelongrunequilibriumanalysisofthe4isinimportdependentcountrieshowisthepastdifferentfromthepresent